New S swell due for the weekend

No Comments
Austin Gendron
(Tuesday) 8.22.17

Central America and Mainland Mexico Short-Range Surf Forecast

We’ve got a smaller mix of SSW swell energy in the water through the middle of the week.  We’re expecting a new round of overlapping S-SSW (180-200) energy to show up for the weekend, holding through early next week.  Long range models show some new SW (210-220) for around the 31st/1st..  Read more for details.


Smaller mix of SSW (190-210) in the water through most of the work week.  Standouts are expected to see knee to chest high+ surf for typical spots, maybe some head high-head high+ at standouts/magnets.  Some models are showing increased winds over the outer waters, potentially driving some added local wind swell out of the S-SW.  This trend should continue through Thursday.

Friday, new SSW-SW (200-210) fills in.  It’s not a very big swell, but should at least bring some waist to chest high+ waves to the regions standouts.  Then Saturday we’re expecting a bigger pulse of S-SSW (185-195) to start building.  The swell will gradually increase through the weekend, with more energy piling on Sunday.  The mix is expected to peak Monday into Tuesday with around 4-5 feet of deepwater swell.  Ideally that would mean surf going head high to well overhead, with potential for some deepwater spots to see set waves going double overhead to double overhead+.  There is a bit of questionable weather that could come into play according to some of the models, but its still too early to call.  We’ll be keeping an eye on the tropics for that feature later this week.  Stay tuned.

Tropical Outlook

TS Kenneth is currently weakening on its northward track west of Baja.  It will not be generating any swell for the region.  We are keeping an eye on potential tropical energy creeping up over the upcoming weekend.  Models aren’t in agreement about this though, so we will have to continue monitoring.

Costa Rica | Nicaragua | El Salvador | Southern Mexico

Long-Range Surf forecast Central America and Mainland Mexico

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific isn’t showing much of anything.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The trend of moderate to plus sized southerly swell should continue through the first half of next week at least.  Wave heights will likely start to decline Wednesday/Thursday.  After that the only notable swell maker on the charts is showing up about 72 hours out.

This feature has become more prominent over the past 24 hours or so.  Models are now showing it generating 25-30 foot seas south of Tahiti, with a decent NE trajectory to send some consistent moderate sized SW (210-220) towards Central America and Mainland Mexico for around the 3rd/4th of September.  After that though, the only feature worth watching is that big blob under Australia, which may send some smaller inconsistent long-period SSW-SW (200-220) energy for around the 7th/8th of September, but its still waaaaaayyyyy too early to call.     Stay tuned.

Next long-range forecast expected for Tuesday the 22nd of July. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster