Plenty of small combo pulses in the forecast, with possibly a couple more solid swells on the way before the end of the month

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Austin Gendron
(Friday) 6.15.12

Central America and Mainland Mexico Short-Range Surf Forecast

The moderate surf train continues through the weekend for most areas, but Hurricane Carlotta could deliver a bit of extra energy to Mainland Mex and the Northern CenAm countries. The Southern Hemisphere has been busy though, trying to materialize something we can work with… and it seems pretty successful right now, with several new pulses in the water, and a couple more to come soon.

  • Mainland Mex Swell Forecast
  • Hurricane Carlotta
  • Costa Rica Swell Forecast
  • SPAC Swell (0 hour)
  • SPAC Period (84 hour)
  • SPAC Swell (42 hour)
  • SPAC wind (108 hour)
  • SPAC Swell (168 hour)
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First off… Here is Hurricane Carlotta (see tropical map)..

The 7-day offshore swell for Southern Mexico, (TPC54) pretty much tells the story of how this Hurricane swell is going to go…

You can see that the majority of deepwater swells overlapping over the next few days are going to get bombarded by a huge spike of energy showing up from the hurricane… What was once ‘potential’ tropical swell, is now full on raging short-period tropical swell (140-200), and should be building today possibly peaking overnight or tomorrow for many parts of Southern Mexico… TPC54 is about 150 miles off the coast of Southern Mexico so there will be a little bit of a delay as the slower short-period waves travel through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, but non the less it looks like quite a bit of swell associated with this guy. Wave heights from this thing could be a few feet overhead briefly, but backing down Saturday, then another jolt is expected out of the WSW-SW (220-260) early next week, but that’s only if the storm sticks to plan. Those areas in Red in the first image… are probably going to be dealing with some pretty gnarly weather issues though, so be aware of the storm as it approaches if you’re in those areas.

When you take the tropical energy out of the equation there is still some fun size swells pushing through from storms over by New Zealand and the other active pocket holding just south of Central America off the Coast of Chile. The blend of these swells will keep us riding shoulder-head high surf for most of the average spots with some overhead sets mixing in as some of the stronger S swell (180-190) pulses mix in later in the week.

Long-Range Surf forecast Central America and Mainland Mexico

There’s plenty of pulses on the way for the end of next week… unfortunately none of them are all that big.

The current South Pacific Swell model for Friday shows deepwater swell moving away from its origin E of New Zealand, and a small storm producing a little fetch off the coast of Chile as well as some potential Tropical action moving away from Fiji over the weekend. None of these systems are really that impressive, but could still provide some shoulder to head high+ surf at the better exposures in Central America and Mainland Mex for next week. (18th-23rd).

You can see on the 84 hour period model that the first of the swells to arrive will be the straight S swell (180-190) that fills in Tuesday with 15 to 16 seconds periods. Then the second will be the New Zealand swell, which is due to start building next Wednesday from the SW (220-230) with forerunners around 20 seconds. This bit of combo swell could bring some better size waves to the stand out spots in the region, if you know where to look you could find some overhead sets the second half of the week. Finally we see that spinner that is supposed to move SE away from Fiji this weekend.

As you can see on the 42 hour Swell model, there could be some issues with this one. For starters it is an interesting system moving out of the tropics, strengthening as is moves SE, and kicking up all kinds of swell (the models are suggesting up to 40 f00t seas over the weekend). That’s when the problems start… the general trajectory of the system (towards Cape Horn) is not good, and then there is the issue of French Polynesia…. oh the good 0l’ FP and T. Although very small, those islands play a very large part in blocking any swell coming out of that region. So the swell could be significantly crapped on… at least at first. IF the system can hold together as it moves south of the islands it could manage to add a little more SSW (210-220) energy to the mix, with a bit more consistency and power.

Beyond that, there’s plenty of storm action in the South Pacific, just not much of it is producing swell directed at Central America and Mexico. You can see on the 108 hour wind models that the systems Adam was talking about earlier this week have shifted to a more zonal pattern, and although there’s a little bit of fetch angled at us… its not looking likely to really produce anything solid for awhile.

The long-range (168 hour) swell models show that little bit of fetch shifting to the east and developing a bit more as the storm moves into the hot area off the coast of Chile. Most of the swells coming off those zonal systems are going to head right for South America and not send much up north, but this last one is looking a little better, and could send a more solid pulse of S-SSW (185-200) for around the 28th/29th.

The Next Mainland Mexico and Central America surf forecast will be updated Tuesday June 19, 2012

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster