Sizable S swell fills in this weekend!

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Austin Gendron
(Friday) 6.16.17

Central America and Mainland Mexico Short-Range Surf Forecast

New long-period S (180-190) arrives for the weekend, and it should mean moderate to plus sized surf for the exposed southerly exposures through early next week.  It’s looking pretty solid, although rainy season onshores could be a bit of a hinderance for the southern half of Central America.  Background SSW-SW (205-220) will be on the rise mid-next week as leftovers from the S ease.  Read more for details.


Surfwise, the lingering SSW (205-215) should continue to bring at least waist to chest high+ surf to the region through Saturday.  Standouts could be seeing some set waves in the head high to overhead range.  New S (180-190) starts to build though, and is likely to boost wave heights quite a bit for exposed areas late Saturday and Sunday.  The swell is supposed to peak Sunday/Monday with around 4 to 6 feet of deepwater swell at 15 seconds.

Running the numbers that means some areas could be looking at head high to well overhead surf for the upcoming weekend.  The swell shadow is probably going to hit Nicaragua and parts of Northern Costa Rica, but other areas are expected to see some decent surf.  Deepwater spots like Puerto and a couple other reef passes that can double energy up on itself are expected to see bigger surf with sets in the double to double overhead+ range.  Size will ease through the middle of next week, with mostly smaller SSW-SW (205-220) energy filling in as reinforcements.

Onshore winds could make it a little tricky for a few areas.  All the recent models are showing fairly consistent winds, but as most of you know there will be periods of calm, so keep an eye on conditions.  The only other thing to note about this is that it could help drive some shorter period energy for the exposed SW facing coastline, making a few areas a little wonky in between set waves.

Tropical Outlook


Costa Rica | Nicaragua | El Salvador | Southern Mexico

Long-Range Surf forecast Central America and Mainland Mexico

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific isn’t showing much of anything.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

So it looks like as we focus on the long-range models we’re expecting to see more overlapping SW (215-225) joining the mix next weekend.  This doesn’t look like its going to be a large swell.

The original system is going to come together just east the Chatham Islands off the east coast of New Zealand.  It is also only expected to generate 25 foot seas, but mixed with lingering energy already in the water, it should be enough to continue moderate sized surf through the 25th/26th for SW exposures.

As we look out a bit further, it looks like we’re going to see the storm track concentrating more around New Zealand and south of French Polynesia/Tahiti mid to late next week.  A series of systems will star to work their way into the South Pacific, but are expected to lose strength as the track east.  On the extreme long-range models though there’s a low that starts to look a little more organized (although not quite so strong) south of Tahiti.  This could add some extra juice to the initial long-period energy due for around the 28th.  As of right now, expecting some moderate sized SSW-SW (210-220) to hold through the end of the month.  It’s still too early to call for sure though.  I’ll have more updates for you next week. Stay tuned.

Next Forecast should be expected on Monday the 19th.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster