Solid S swell due for the first half of next week!

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Austin Gendron
(Friday) 8.11.17

Central America and Mainland Mexico Short-Range Surf Forecast

We’re going to continue to see a mix of of lingering S swell and some SSW-SW (205-215) swell through the start of the weekend.  Abruptly on Sunday we’re looking at the arrival of a large S (180-195) that should quickly build to a peak late Sunday/Monday.  Wave heights are expected to remain elevated through the first half of next week before giving way to smaller/moderate sized SW (210-220) through the second half of the week.  Read more for details.


Surf from the recent S/SSW-SW mix eases a little bit through the day Saturday.  That should mean most exposed spots will be seeing waist to head high surf, with maybe some bigger sets at standouts and magnets.

Sunday things are supposed to pick up a bit.  We’re expecting an initial large swath of swell to arrive early Sunday, building through the day, likely peaking late in day/Monday morning, with around 6 to 8 feet of deepwater swell at 17 to 18 seconds.  That should translate into at least overhead to double overhead along the exposed coast, with standouts seeing consistently a couple feet overhead to double overhead+.  For deepwater spots and magnets, its possible that we could be looking at XXL surf, with sets going triple overhead and upwards… These peak wave heights will occur Sunday evening through Monday, with size starting to ease Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.  There will be a lot of water moving, with strong currents and likely sneaker sets occasionally.  Please be aware of your abilities and don’t make any dumb decisions.

Smaller SW (210-220) energy arrives next Wednesday, blending with the southerly leftovers.  The mix should help maintain moderate sized surf through the end of next week.  Size will still be on the decline though as the larger swell from earlier in the week continues to retreat.

Tropical Outlook

The tropics are showing a little life right now with a couple developing systems.  The first is a couple hundred miles W of Puerto Vallarta, and looking very likely to develop into some sort of cyclone in the next day or so.  What’s weird about this one is that the global models are down playing it quite a bit, but you can see from the satellite imagery that it is starting to look fairly organized.  For the sake of surf, it may be able to generate some wind waves over the next couple days along the coast of Central-Northern Mexico, but it’s on a mostly westward track and carrying along fairly quickly at the moment.  It will more than likely be taken out of range and hit cooler waters before a substantial storm can manifest itself.

The other area of low pressure is SSW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and it also is on a W-WNW track.  Right now the models are showing it slowly strengthening, and not becoming a tropical cyclone until sometime mid to late next week, if at all.  More updates on Tuesday for that one.

Costa Rica | Nicaragua | El Salvador | Southern Mexico

Long-Range Surf forecast Central America and Mainland Mexico

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific isn’t showing much of anything.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The small to moderate SW due next week isn’t the last swell on the forecast, but its the last one that seems worth mentioning.

There are a couple weaker systems near Chile that could send a little S swell up for late next weekend, and then a zonal system moving along Antarctica is expected to generate some SSW-SW (200-220) that could start arriving around the 24th or so.  That ones a bit hard to call, and has recently been downgraded/doesn’t have a very good track from the start.  I’ll have more updates if needed on Tuesday.  Stay tuned.

Next long-range forecast expected for Tuesday the 15th of July. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster