Big NW swell mix arrives Tuesday

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 9.18.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Monday feels like the calm before the storm… Large NW (295-320) is supposed to build Tuesday, and peak Wednesday before slowly easing through the second half of the week.  Conditions are looking onshore through Thursday, but could clean up as swell eases through the weekend.  Read more for details.

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San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

Not a whole lot of excitement Monday. Tuesday things start to get a little more interesting. A trough moving down the coast from the Gulf of Alaska is supposed to bring breezy NW winds down the coast through Thursday. That’s going to bring wind swell as swell as medium-long period energy from the earlier stages of the storm when it was near the Aleutians.

The mix of surf is going to pick up quickly through the day Tuesday, likely starting off in the waist to head high range in the morning, and reaching overhead to double overhead+ at standout NW exposures. Conditions are looking a little hairy with onshore winds adding some texture and chop to the surface for exposed spots. More protected areas where the swell can wrap in will be a little smaller, likely chest to overhead+, with cleaner conditions. The surf should hold Wednesday and Thursday, before letting up Friday through the weekend.

The trough is expected to invert itself a little bit over the weekend, with his pressure to the north. That typically means we’re going to see an offshore pattern taking over. So the easing swell should be met with cleaner conditions heading into the weekend.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 18th small surf today, with light to moderate texture on the surface at W-NW exposures.

Tuesday the 19th wave heights will build through the day with standouts potentially running head high to well overhead+ late. More average spots will be in the chest to overhead+ range. Conditions could be a mess due to onshore.

Wednesday the 20th Solid mix of WNW-NW energy bring overhead high to double overhead+ surf to the regions standouts. Conditions looking like they are going to be a little blown out for some areas.

Thursday the 21st NW swell mix holds size int he overhead to double overhead range at standouts. Breezy NW winds continue.

Friday the 22nd WNW-NW swell starts to ease, conditions improve. Standouts expected to be in the head high to well overhead range early.

Saturday the 23rd WNW-NW swell mix backs off into the chest to ovehread+ range at standouts.

Sunday the 24th WNW-NW swell mix backs off as conditions continue to be cleaner. Wave heights expected in the waist to head high+ range.

Tropical Overview

TS Norma shows the most promise for generating a little tropical swell, but the storm is weakening.  Over the next couple days, its going to head west, and then north.  It’s expected to become a tropical depression during that time though, which means it probably won’t be able to kick up much of anything.  TS Otis is on a SW track away from the region, it it too won’t amount to much if anything..

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Nothing on the long-range following this week’s swell so far.  Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Mostly minimal surf coming out of the Southern Pacific in the long term.  Keeping an eye on things, but mostly small background energy as far out as I can see.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 21st. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster