Conditions improve as we start a run of solid swell

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 1.11.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

New long-period WNW-NW (285-300) arrives for the end of the week. Swell is going to peak as conditions turn offshore Friday. Conditions are expected to remain favorable as a larger pulse of long-period W-WNW (275-290) fills in early next week and continues to bring large surf that could continue through the end of next week. Read more for details.

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San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

Not much change to the forecasting the short term, we’re expecting new long-period swell to start filling in Thursday as the conditions improve. The surf for the exposed coast could be in the head high to well overhead+ range, but its likely to build through the afternoon and evening.

Surf is expected to peak Friday, with overhead to double overhead+ wave heights along the exposed coast, likely bigger at deepwater breaks. Despite a little bit of reinforcing energy arriving late Friday size will start to relax a little over the weekend as light variable/offshore winds continue.

Looks like the winter button got turned on (although someone forgot to tell the ridge of high pressure that’s building over California. We’re expecting offshores through the weekend, then light variable/offshore winds at least through mid-next week. Good news considering the next big storm is brewing near the Kamchatka Peninsula right now. It’s generating 40-45 foot seas, and expected to continue to do so through through Thursday with a fairly good trajectory for California. The duration and focused direction are going to mean long periods (forerunners around 23-24 seconds) arriving Sunday night/Monday. The swell will build to a 12-15 foot peak Monday/Tuesday with periods around 17 seconds. Surfwise that means wave heights in the double to triple overhead+ range along the exposed coast. Probably a bit bigger at deepwater spots. The swell is expected to hold its peak through early Wednesday at least.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 11th Surf is supposed to ease a little bit, but still running head high to well overhead+ at standouts. Winds are looking good.

Friday the 12th surf is expected to peak with wave heights in the range of overhead to double overhead+. Larger on set waves at standouts. Conditions look pretty good with light variable offshore winds.

Saturday the 13th size and conditions expected to hold through the morning. Winds look stronger offshore, and surf starts to settle through the afternoon.

Sunday the 14th Offshores continue as swell eases into the head high to well overhead+ range along the exposed coast. Standouts could see occasionally bigger sets.

Monday the 15th New long-period W-WNW (270-295) builds overnight and will peak late in the day, bringing surf in the range of a couple feet overhead to double overehad+ with standouts seeing set waves up to triple overhead, and larger at magnets.

Tuesday the 16th light variable winds and large surf in the double to triple overhead range at standouts continues.

Wednesday the 17th surf starts to settle while conditions hold.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Doesn’t look like the exposed coast is going to get much of a break next week. The models are showing another low swooping through the mid latitudes a couple thousand miles off the coast.

It’s still too early to call, but the current forecast shows potential for the system to generate 35-40+ foot seas. At that close proximity, its definitely expected to have an impact, and could generate another sizable pulse for Central California. The fetch is a little further north than we’d want for Socal, but still close enough that it should help add some reinforcing energy to next week’s swell.

Long-range models are suggesting that we could see another local fetch popping up in the mid latitudes right off the coast. We’ll have to see how that one plays out, but it could mean another medium-long period pulse coming head on for the end of next week stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Minimal swell coming out of the South Pacific at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 15th.  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster