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Fall weather is starting to show its colors

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Austin Gendron
by
(Thursday) 11.16.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Small background swell from the Southern Hemisphere continues to ease. NW swell perks up a little bit on Thursday before high pressure builds for the weekend. Then another weak system moves through early next week. Possibly unsettled weather and some southwesterly swell/wind swell early next week. Read more for details.

To view the details of your local region click on your “Central California Surf Region”

San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

We’ve got a wet day ahead of us Thursday with a mix of wind swell/swell that should mean head high to well overhead+ along the exposed coast.

Conditions are likely to be a bit more onshore, but with some lingering texture from the passing front. High pressure builds over the weekend, cleaning up conditions as the swell eases. Saturday wave heights are going to be a bit smaller, waist to head high but with fun conditions. Size drops a bit more Sunday as conditions start to shift more onshore.

We’re looking at the next system arriving likely Monday. It’s got potential to be another wet one. Tapping into the Pineapple Express. Winds are going to be southwesterly though, adding some SW wind swell/swell mix to combine with a little NW filling in Monday and Tuesday. Wave heights aren’t expected to exceed waist to head high+ at this point, but we’ll have to wait and see how things play out.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 16th Solid head high to well overhead+ surf, but breezy onshore winds adding texture and rain in the forecast could make for tough conditions

Friday the 17th Keep an eye on onshore winds. Wave heights are expected to ease a little bit. Standouts likely to be running chest high to overhead+ range, but conditions could improve depending on the winds.

Saturday the 18th NW swell eases more. Wave heights in the waist to head high+ range.

Sunday the 19th Keeping an eye on the weather as another storm approaches, possibly introducing more wind swell into the mix late.

Monday the 20th A little extra NW could mean waist to head high+ surf again. Watching for some SW energy in the mix and stormy wet weather.

Tuesday the 21st Swell combo in the water, conditions look questionable. Wave heights likely to be in the waist to head high+ range.

Wednesday the 22nd Conditions look like they will dry out a bit. Keeping an eye on swell for potential increase.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Thanksgiving weekend is looking dry. We’re keeping an eye on a big cut off low north of Hawaii. As of right now its not looking all that promising (for us… Hawaii is a different story). I’ll have more updates for you early next week.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The South Pacific looks like its starting to go into hibernation. There’s still some activity down there, but the storm track is looking mostly zonal. That means smaller inconsistent swell energy… and in this case from the SSW-SW (200-210) for around the 29th. Stay tuned.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 20th. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/