Fun clean swell picks up and peaks over Thanksgiving

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 11.20.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

We’re looking at a dry, warm and likely offshore week. As far as swell goes, we’re expecting a blend of W-WSW (280-310) medium period energy to build through midweek. An extra pulse of longer period WNW-NW (300-310) is due Thanksgiving Day before the entire mix starts easing into the later part of the weekend. Keeping an eye on longer-period WNW-NW swell for the end of the weekend. Just a heads up, I will be taking the holiday weekend off to be with family. Next forecast will come on Sunday or Monday. Read more for details.

[This chart is outdated and unfortunately won't be updated today]

To view the details of your local region click on your “Central California Surf Region”

San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

High pressure is going to remain over Central California through what looks like the duration of the week, and holiday weekend it seems.

There’s a big low in the Gulf of Alaska, and the dynamic between the two is going to mean variable/offshore winds through the first half of the week. That should mean good conditions through at least Wednesday. Surfwise, we’re expecting the W-WSW (280-250) swell from the low off the coast to build through Wednesday. Wave heights will likely be running knee to chest high+ Monday, possibly waist to head high Tuesday. Wednesday wave heights could be running chest to overhead+ at top exposures.

Thanksgiving Day we’re expecting an additional pulse of WNW-NW (300-310) from another front rotating through the upper low. That’s going to help boost wave heights a little more, possibly producing head high to well overhead surf at standouts on Thanksgiving day. Winds look a little more onshore, but still are expected to be on the lighter side, so it could be a pretty decent day of surf. Wave heights start to ease Friday while conditions remain on the lighter side.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 20th The mix of W-WSW is expected to build a little bit, bringing knee to chest high+ waves to standouts. Conditions look fun.

Tuesday the 21st Swell combo in the water should mean wave heights likely to be in the waist to head high+ range. Conditions looking pretty good.

Wednesday the 22nd Swell continues to increase, with decent conditions. Wave heights expected to increase to chest to overhead+ late in the day.

Thursday the 23rd Solid head high to well overhead+ surf as new WNW-NW fills in. Conditions could be a little more onshore, but still light.

Friday the 24th Keep an eye on onshore winds. Wave heights are expected to ease a little bit. Standouts likely to be running chest high to overhead+ range.

Saturday the 25th NW swell eases more. Wave heights in the waist to head high+ range.

Sunday the 26th Keeping an eye on the weather as another long period swell starts to arrive, potentially building the surf back up.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Looking out further on the models, there is yet another strong system expected to work its way off the Aleutians and into the Gulf of Alaska over the holiday weekend.

The storm could generate 35+ foot seas aimed at California. It’s still a little too early to call, but the long-range models are suggesting it could bring 20-21 second forerunners for next Sunday, and build to a fairly solid swell at 10-12 feet with long-periods.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Minimal swell coming out of the South Pacific at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 27th. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster