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Fun surf eases through midweek, more NW wind swell due Wednesday

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Austin Gendron
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(Monday) 10.9.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

There’s a solid mix of NW energy and easing SSW in the water today. The mix will back off through Tuesday. Then as the southern semi leftovers fade, the NW energy is expected to pick up again Wednesday, and then slowly fade through the upcoming weekend. Read more for details.

 

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We’ve got easing SSW (195-205) swell in the water and a solid NW mix of wind swell and medium period energy. The combination is making for surf ranging from chest high to overhead+, possibly a couple feet overhead along the NW exposed coast. Conditions are pretty good thanks to high pressure and offshore winds, a trend that should continue through Tuesday.

A trough will develop along the West Coast Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing back the NW gradient down the coast. This will build a mix of NW wind swell/swell that will likely peak Wednesday with surf in the chest to overhead+ range, before slowly easing through the remainder of the week/weekend. As of right now conditions are expected to be onshore through the second half of the week, but weaken and probably turn offshore again over the upcoming weekend.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 9th Surf eases into the waist to head high+ range for most average spots and southerly breaks that are also picking up the NW energy. W-NW exposures should be seeing surf in the chest to overhead+ range, with potential for some bigger sets. Conditions looking better with light variable/offshore winds at least in the morning.

Tuesday the 10th SSW leftovers continue to ease as NW swell mix backs off. Wave heights are expected to drop into the waist to head high+ range for standout W-NW exposures and likely knee to chest high at southerly exposures.

Wednesday the 11th wind swell/swell mix from the NW picks up. Wave heights could boost back into the Chest to overhead+ range along the exposed coast, possibly a little bigger. Conditions look better at more protected spots.

Thursday the 12th surf eases a little. Watching for winds, but likely to remain onshore and a bit textured with chest to overhead surf.

Friday the 13th wave heights continue to ease into the waist to head high+ range along the exposed coast. Watching for winds to start letting up.

Saturday the 14th Waist to head high surf along the exposed coast with cleaner conditions.

Sunday the 15th Standout W-NW exposures could be running knee to chest high+. Conditions should be light and possibly offshore.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long range models are questionable at best. There have been some hints at a potential swell maker coming together in the Gulf of Alaska late in the weekend/early next week. We’ll have to wait and see how that plays out though. Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

I’m still amazed at this past weekend’s swell, not because of how it performed, but because of how late in the season it is, considering we had such a quiet summer. Well it looks like the South Pacific isn’t quite done yet. There are a couple more systems on the horizon.

The first system is going to come together over the next couple days, south of Tahiti. This looks like another well tracked system. It’s aimed almost directly at Southern California, although does flirt with the French Polynesian Island shadow a little bit. Still I think it’s going to provide some solid surf for exposed breaks when it arrives on the 16th from the SSW (195-205) degrees.

The second system looks a little more iffy, with a less ideal storm track that pushes it into the S-SSE (165-180) part of the swell window. That limits it mostly to Southern California and spots that can pick up the steeper swells. I’ll keep an eye on this one and let you know more later in the week.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 12th. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/