Fun surf for a few days, then solid NW later this week

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 10.16.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Fun SSW (195-205) starts filling in Monday, building to a peak Tuesday/Wednesday.  There will also be some small to moderate sized NW (205-315) energy in the water as well.  Keeping an eye on a very large NW (290-310) long-period swell potentially arriving Thursday night.  Read more for details.

To view the details of your local region click on your “Central California Surf Region” San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

Surfwise we’re looking at some really fun waves through midweek. The long-period SSW (195-205) building over the next couple of days is expected to bring waist to head high+ surf to standout southerly exposures, with a few magnets potentially seeing bigger overhead-overhead+ sets.

W-NW exposures are looking at a little extra NW swell mix filling in over the next couple days as well, potentially bringing waist to head high+ surf as well. Conditions are expected to be lighter and variable/offshore Monday and Tuesday, with a little more onshore breeze taking over Wednesday. So overall surf able and probably really fun for a few areas.

Wave heights are expected to start easing a little bit Thursday as cooler weather and stronger onshore start to take over.

The big news this week is going to be the first solid NPac swell of the season due later this week. The models have started to converge on a solution with this one that would bring a fairly large pulse of WNW-NW (290-310) long-period swell down the coast from the Gulf of Alaska. As of right now we’re expecting the storm to generate 35-40+ foot seas less than a thousand miles off the coast of Washington/Oregon. Based on the most recent model run it looks like the 19 to 20-second forerunners will work their way down the coast Thursday night into Friday morning. The storm is close in proximity and therefore the swell will pick up quickly, and is expected to peak Friday and early Saturday with deepwater heights of 10 to 15 feet.

That translates to very large surf, likely in the double to triple overhead+ range along the exposed coast. Conditions are looking a little hairy, with a cold front pushing down the coast bringing rain and breezy onshore winds. There’s a chance that the passing system could generate offshore on its back side as it moves inland, but its still too early to call. Either way surf is looking a bit big and textured/mixed up. The more protected spots will be a bit smaller, with overhead to double overhead+ surf and cleaner conditions.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 16th most of Central California should continue too be pretty small with knee to chest high surf. New forerunners for SSW swell start to fill in late.

Tuesday the 17th SSW builds through the day, potentially bringing waist to head high+ surf as tide drops in the afternoon, possibly even some bigger sets at top exposures. Additional WNW-NW energy will bring some waist to head high+ surf to the W-NW exposures as well.

Wednesday the 18th WNW-NW energy settles a little bit, possibly mixing with a little wind swell. SSW is expected to peak, with chest to overhead+ surf at standout southerly exposures.

Thursday the 19th surf eases a little. Watching for winds to remain onshore and pick up a bit for textured waist to head high surf at W-NW exposures. Southerly exposures will be cleaner and about the same size.

Friday the 20th NW swell picks up overnight and is expected to generate overhead to double overhead+ surf at the least. Many standouts could be running double to triple overhead+. Conditions look like they will be textured along the W-NW exposed coast.

Saturday the 21st large overhead to double overhead+ surf continues, with bigger sets possible at standouts. Surf settles through the day.

Sunday the 22nd Standout W-NW exposures could be running overhead to double overhead as swell from the NW relaxes.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The medium range models are showing potential for another pulse of WNW-NW (290-310) energy arriving early next week. The storm looks like it could generate 35 foot seas, but it doesn’t hold its strength after crossing the dateline.

As a result we’re expecting to see a pulse of moderate sized 18 to 19-second swell arriving mid to late next Monday and bringing a little bit of surf to California for the first half of next week. I’ll have more details for you later on this week. Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

We’re still expecting some new S (175-185) for around the 22nd/23rd from a system currently south of Easter Island.

There’s also the long-period SW (210-220) for around the 26th. That ones going to be a bit smaller but should still mean some playful small surf for exposed breaks end of next eek More details next week.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 19th. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster