Mixed up WNW-NW swell through the weekend

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 4.19.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Swell mix picks up again Thursday with a long-period WNW-NW (290-310) and NW wind swell. It looks like as more medium to long-period energy piles on through the weekend we’re expecting surf to gradually build to a peak late Sunday/Monday. We’ll also have some southern hemi energy in the water this weekend. Next week we could see another round of longer-period swell arriving Tuesday. Read more for details.

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San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

The second half of the week we’re expecting a new swell mix from a series of systems working their way across the North Pacific right now. This scenario has been looking like its going to be a bit bigger than previously expected. The first pulse will be accompanied by a cold upper low and breezy winds on Thursday. It’s possible there could be some rain for the Central Coast as well. Surwise we’re looking at a mix of long-period energy from the WNW-NW (290-310) bringing back chest to overhead+ surf through the day. Conditions are likely to be pretty mixed up for the exposed coast. The trend is expected to hold through Friday.

A second system moving along the Aleutians will generate another round of long-period swell energy for the weekend. Again, the associated storm is expected to move through and drive some breezy NW winds that could kick up wind swell on the surface of the longer-period energy. Not much change there situationally, but the most recent models are showing more of that short-medium period energy, adding some size to the surf. Current estimates are for wave heights to increase into the head high to well overhead+ range by Sunday.

Additionally this weekend we’re expecting a small to moderate sized pulse of S (175-185) to help add a little combo energy to southerly exposures over the weekend. The pulse should arrive late Friday, and build to a peak Saturday, easing slowly through early next week.

Early to mid-next week it looks like we will be receiving our next round of WNW-NW (285-300) swell. This time from another Aleutian system. It’s still a few days out, but its showing 25-30+ foot seas. The angle isn’t too bad, so it could end up sending a pretty consistent pulse of swell. As of right now, initial 17 to 18 second periods arrive Tuesday morning. Building to a 6-8 foot peak next Wednesday. We’ll have to wait and see though.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 19th WNW-NW swell builds through the day with new long-period energy in the mix. Wave heights could be running chest high to well overhead, Conditions expected to be breezy onshore again.

Friday the 20th surf along the exposed coast continues running chest high to well overhead with light to moderate onshore winds. S swell arrives late.

Saturday the 21st surf should build a little as a secondary pulse of WNW-NW energy arrives. NW winds over outer waters expected to maintain moderate wind swell on the surface.

Sunday the 22nd, WNW-NW swell mix expected to bring head high to well overhead+ surf to standouts, with light to moderate onshores likely. The southern hemi should start relaxing a little bit.

Monday the 23rd Conditions looking much lighter as WNW-NW and southern hemi mix ease into the chest to overhead+ range.

Tuesday the 24th light onshores could return through the day, as new WNW-NW swell picks up.

Wednesday the 25th keeping an eye on the winds, but WNW-NW swell should peak in the overhead to double overhead range at standouts.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific looking a little quiet after next weeks swell producer.  I’ll keep an eye on things, but we could start seeing a slow down in the number of storms and swells pretty soon.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Keeping an eye on a couple more pulses of southern hemi for the second half of next week. Most of the energy is coming from a series of systems south of the Pitcairn Islands.

The next pulse after this weekend is due next Wednesday, followed by another possibly next weekend. Stay tuned.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 23rd.  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster

  • Jonathan Hess

    Come back, Austin!