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NW swell mix eases through the weekend. New SSW due next week

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Austin Gendron
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(Thursday) 10.12.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

NW wind swell/swell mix holds its peak through Thursday before slowly backing off through early next week. Lingering Southern Hemisphere swell will be on the smaller side through the weekend, but we’re anticipating another moderate sized pulse arriving early next week. Read more for details.

 

To view the details of your local region click on your “Central California Surf Region” San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

The passing trough of low pressure has ramped up some NW swell energy. Wave heights are expected to hold in the chest to overhead+ range at standouts along the exposed coast through Thursday, before slowly easing through the remainder of the week/weekend. As of right now conditions are expected to be onshore through the second half of the week, but weaken and turn offshore over the upcoming weekend.

It looks like Sunday and Monday are probably going to be the smallest days of the upcoming week. We’re expecting a little bit more NW energy to arrive Tuesday, helping maintain waist to head high+ surf at standout W-NW exposures. More exciting probably is going to be the addition of another long-period SSW (200-210) that should start filling in with 20+ second forerunners on Monday afternoon/evening. That new swell is expected to build to a peak in the 2-3 foot range, and could produce wave heights along the exposed southerly facing coast in the range of chest to overhead+. Pretty good for a late seasons s.hemi.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 12th surf eases a little. Watching for winds, but likely to remain onshore and a bit textured with chest to overhead surf.

Friday the 13th wave heights continue to ease into the waist to head high+ range along the exposed coast. Watching for winds to start letting up.

Saturday the 14th Waist to head high surf along the exposed coast with cleaner conditions.

Sunday the 15th Standout W-NW exposures could be running knee to chest high+. Conditions should be light and possibly offshore.

Monday the 16th most of Central California should continue too be pretty small with knee to chest high surf. New forerunners for SSW swell start to fill in late.

Tuesday the 17th SSW builds through the day, potentially bringing waist to head high+ surf as tide drops in the afternoon, possibly even some bigger sets at top exposures. Additional WNW-NW energy will bring some waist to head high surf to the W-NW exposures as well.

Wednesday the 18th WNW-NW energy settles a little bit, possibly mixing with a little wind swell. SSW is expected to peak, with chest to overhead+ surf at standout southerly exposures.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long range models are looking hopeful, with a strong system developing in the Gulf of Alaska mid-next week. It’s still way to early to call, but it could mean some solid swell from the WNW-NW (290-310) for the end of next week. Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Following next weeks solid SSW swell, we’re looking at some more energy potentially showing up around the start of the following week

Models have shifted this guy a little more west into a better part of the California swell window. It still is mostly on an eastward track, but the models show the fetch aiming itself north for a period of time, while possibly generating 35+ foot seas. It’s still somewhat early to call, but it could mean some more S (1175-185) for around the 22nd/23rd.

Beyond that, the long-range models are suggesting a pulse of long-period SW (210-220) for around the 26th. That ones a bit harder to call though. More details next week.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 16th. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/