NW wind swell eases through the weekend as conditions improve

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 9.21.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Breezy conditions associated with an upper level trough are driving wind swell down the coast this evening.  Friday things start to improve, and wind swell/swell mix will start to ease.  Wave heights are expected to back off to smaller to moderate size through the weekend, and then settle for early next week.  Long-range models showing a little bit of promise from the North Pacific, but that’s about it.  Read more for details.

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San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

The trough of low pressure currently moving through Central California is drumming up some moderate to plus sized wind swell along the exposed coast. Wave heights Thursday were in the head high to well overhead range. Winds are probably going to stay onshore through the weekend, but are expected to weaken Friday and Saturday, allowing for wind swell to back off.

Later in the weekend the low is going to start moving east, with some negative tilt. That typically means potential for offshore. So we’re keeping an eye on offshore winds Sunday. The swell will be relaxing into the waist to head high range by then, and then settle for the first half of next week. Good news is that despite the surf running mostly knee to chest high+ along the exposed coast, winds are expected to be light/offshore.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Friday the 22nd WNW-NW swell starts to ease, conditions improve. Standouts expected to be in the head high to well overhead range early.

Saturday the 23rd WNW-NW swell mix backs off into the chest to overhead+ range at standouts.

Sunday the 24th WNW-NW swell mix backs off as conditions continue to be cleaner. Wave heights expected in the waist to head high+ range.

Monday the 25th Surf eases into the waist to head high range, possibly a little smaller. Conditions looking decent with light variable/offshore winds at least in the morning.

Tuesday the 26th surf is expected to settle into the knee to chest high+ range with fun conditions.

Wednesday the 27th fun surf in the knee to chest high+.

Thursday the 28th surf continues. Watching for winds to turn onshore.

Tropical Overview

There is an area of low pressure that’s looking promising for a possible tropical cyclone… NHC has given it 70% chance in the next couple days, and 90% in the next 5 days… unfortunately the global models aren’t looking all that promising. We’ll have to keep an eye on it, but its likely to not work its way west.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Nothing on the long-range following this week’s swell so far.  Extreme long-range models show potential for a low to develop north of Hawaii late next week.  Still too early to tell.  Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Mostly minimal surf coming out of the Southern Pacific in the long term.  Keeping an eye on things, but mostly small background energy as far out as I can see.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 25th. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster

  • John12345

    Just wanted to say on behalf of a central coast surfer that I really appreciate the work you put into these reports. They are the most detailed and specific forecasts I’ve been able to find for my area of the coast. I check them as soon as they come out; and so far I’ve been able to really score. Keep up the good work!!