Playful surf through the work week

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 2.12.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Mix of NW wind swell and WNW (290-300) swell fill-in to bring moderate to plus sized surf to the exposed coast through midweek.  Surf will relax through the end of the week and first half of the weekend.  Sunday we’re expecting another large mix of of NW (285-315) to start off next week.  Read more for details.

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San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

Mild weather through the week, with variable winds, and fairly decent conditions for the most part. Surfwise we’re looking at a moderate mix of WNW-NW energy and some small S swell from the Southern Hemisphere. The swell mix should mean waist to head high+ surf along the exposed coast, with some overhead to overhead+ surf at standouts. This trend should hold through Thursday, staring to ease on Friday. Smaller to moderate sized leftovers expected Friday and Saturday.

Saturday we’re going to see some small swell from the WNW (285-300) arrives. When I say small I mean the swell was produced near the Kurile Islands, and had to travel a long way to get here. The result is going to be 2-3 feet of deepwater swell with periods around 13 to 14 seconds. That means surf in the waist to head high+ range at standouts. On top of the surf being small it looks like conditions could start to turn more onshore as a broad upper trough takes hold over the West Coast.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 12th new WNW swell mix to peak through the day with chest to overhead+ surf along the exposed coast, possibly head high to well overhead+ at standouts.

Tuesday the 13th surf holds, and should be a fairly consistent swell still. Wave heights likely chest to overhead+ and a little bigger on sets at standouts.

Wednesday the 14th more WNW swell adds to swell mix and is expected to help maintain surf heights.

Thursday the 15th swell waist to head high+ surf expected to continue with fun conditions. Possibly bigger at standouts.

Friday the 16th surf at westerly exposures starts to ease into the waist to head high range.

Saturday the 17th, swell mix holds in the waist to head high range as new WNW-NW swell mix starts to fill in.

Sunday the 18th watching for new NW swell mix associated with troughing over the west coast. Likely to be stronger onshore winds and wind swell in the mix as well.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range models are showing a couple more lows generating fetch out near Japan/Kurile Is./Kamchatka Peninsula later this week and over the weekend.

The blocking high continues to push the storm track north into Alaska. This is keeping the swells from culminating as much energy as they would if the storms were more lateral across the North Pacific. Either way we should see another round of small swell energy arriving from the WNW-NW (290-305) early next week.

The long-range models are a little less predictable at this point, and seem to be on the move at the moment. If the current models stick though, there could be another WNW-NW arrival mid to late next week.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Minimal swell coming out of the South Pacific at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 15th.  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster