S swell mix eases through weekend as wind swell picks up

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 7.13.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

A playful mix of small southern semi background swell and tropical swell from Hurricane Eugene will be easing through the end of the week and weekend.  Small NW wind swell picks up over the weekend as high pressure builds.  Another s.hemi/tropical mix expected for mid to late next week. Read more for details.

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San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

Surf wise we’re looking at mostly small surf throughout the region right now. Standout W-NW exposures should be seeing knee to chest high+ mush balls with a few corners at times. Onshore winds aren’t helping. Southerly exposures are very hit or miss. The tropical swell from Eugene is going to be very selective and inconsistent due to the steepness (165-170) of the swell. Still the small S-SSW (180-190) mix in the water should help at least bring some knee to waist high+ waves to the exposed coast. Standouts could see some head high-head high+ sets in the morning with the tide push. The blend of southerly swells is expected to ease starting Friday and will continue to back off through the weekend.

W-NW exposures on the other hand are looking at increasing wind swell starting Saturday. The region is expected to feel a warming trend as high pressure builds. Heat wise its not looking too bad, but with warmer temperatures inland, the NW gradient along the coast will start to ramp up, and we could see surf building for a couple days. As of right now we’re looking at waist to head high+ waves along the exposed coast, maybe a little bigger for a few areas.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 13th wind swell/swell mix starts to ease a little. Southern hemi exposures continue to look best suited for picking up some fun surf. Wave heights typically will be in the knee to chest high range, although a few magnets could be seeing chest high to head high+ sets.

Friday the 14th, Swell mix eases more. Standouts expected to be running waist to chest high+.

Saturday the 15th NW wind swell builds as S swell mix lingers. W-NW exposures could see waist to head high+ surf by days end. Southerly exposures are expected to run knee to chest high.

Sunday the 16th W-NW exposures peak in the waist to head high+ range, possibly overhead high. Southerly exposures could be running knee to chest high.

Monday the 17th Wind swell is expected to hold size. Southern hemi on the smaller side.

Tuesday the 18th Wind swell starts to linger as winds let up some. Southern hemi should be on the smaller side.

Wednesday the 19th Wind swell starts to ease more as a new mix of southern hemi begins to build. Size is hard to say, but there could be some unexpected set waves at southerly exposures.

Tropical Overview

Eugene continues to move NW as a post-tropical cyclone, and will fizzle out through the end of the week. TH next system we look at it TS Fernanda which is currently located several hundred miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Baja and generating 35 kt winds.

Unlike Eugene, Fernanda is being controlled by high pressure to her north. This is going to push her west instead of ideally northwest. SO despite good environmental conditions and a likelihood that the system will become a hurricane over the next couple days, it looks like the trajectory is going to be mostly west. A little bit of the swell energy will be spun off to the north, but it won’t be concentrated very well, and likely the resulting small surf will be inconsistent. As of right now the forecast calls for this S-SW (180-210) to arrive next Wednesday.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

No swell makers at this time.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

So earlier in the week a mentioned a decent sized system south of Tahiti/French Polynesia. Well it’s still there, but unfortunately it’s taken a turn for the worst… and I mean “turn” quite literally.

The storm has turned its fetch mostly eastward towards Chile. That is going to cut down on the amount of swell energy focused towards California, which in turn means smaller surf. It looks like there’s still a little bit of the fetch aimed N-NE so we could still see some small to moderate sized waves mid to late next week, but its not looking nearly as promising. I doubt we’ll see much change over the next 24 hours, but if it does, I’ll have an update for you on Monday. Aside from that no other mentionable swell makers at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 17th of July. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster