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Small to moderate WNW-NW swell mix through the week

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Austin Gendron
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(Monday) 9.11.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

WNW (285-300) and NW swell mix leftover from the weekend is expected to hold through the start of the work week.  Cooler temperatures and an increase in NW wind swell possible Thursday/Friday.  Aside from that mostly small background swell from the Southern Hemisphere.  Read more for details.

To view the details of your local region click on your “Central California Surf Region”

San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

Surfwise we’re expecting waist to head high+ surf to continue along the W-NW facing beaches through Tuesday at least. Size should ease a little more Wednesday though. Conditions are looking a little onshore (mostly out of the W-SW) as low pressure off the Central Coast meanders about. There’s a chance at some showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday thanks to all that warm moist air.

Thursday the low moves east as a trough of low pressure works its way through the PNW. That’s going to shift the winds more W-NW, bring back the marine layer, and maybe even generate some more wind swell. Right now the models are showing the gradient strengthening Thursday/Friday, potentially kick up some chest to overhead surf along the exposed coast, before easing into the weekend.

In the mean time southern hemisphere swells are going to be pretty low key, with mostly background energy mixing with wrap from the North Pacific. For most places that will mean smaller ankle to knee high surf for most southerly exposures, with a few winter magnets and well exposed southerly spots seeing some knee to waist high+ waves.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 11th additional NW energy and some wind swell could add to the W-NW mix in the water helping maintain and possibly increase surf along the exposed coast in to the waist to head high+ range.

Tuesday the 12th wave heights ease into the waist to head high range at standouts along the W-NW exposed coast. More average spots should be running knee to chest high.

Wednesday the 13th WNW-NW swell mix eases a little bit. Standouts likely to be running waist to chest high+.

Thursday the 14th WNW swell mix increases again with NW wind swell starting to build. The exposed coast should be running waist to head high, possibly head high-overhead later in the day.

Friday the 15th WNW-NW mix peaks early, with standouts potentially seeing chest to overhead.

Saturday the 16th WNW-NW swell mix starts to ease a little bit. Wave heights expected to be running knee to chest high+ along the exposed coast.

Sunday the 17th WNW-NW swell holds in the knee to chest high+ range.

Tropical Overview

Keeping an eye on several areas of low pressure developing south of Mainland Mexico and Baja over the next few days. 5-day predictions are suggesting 20%, 40%, and 70%. Global models don’t give much credit to the 20 and 40 percenters. That red one though, could develop into a solid system, but none of the models are showing it turning into a swell maker for California. I’ll keep an eye on it and have an update for you on Thursday though.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-Range forecast models are showing potential for a large low to develop in the Gulf of Alaska over the upcoming weekend/early next week. The GFS and NAVGEM aren’t in great agreement on the strength, and this time of year it’s still pretty early to make a very confident call.

Regardless though there’s a chance we could be seeing some long-period WNW-NW (290-305) early to mid-next week. Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Mostly minimal surf coming out of the Southern Pacific in the long term.  I doubt that things have shut down for good, but its’ probably going to be on the smaller side for awhile.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 14th. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/