Smaller surf expected through the weekend. Watching next week for new s.hemi

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 8.10.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Small mix of surf continues through the end of the work week with a little extra SSW (185-195) in the water.  Wind swell is supposed to pick up a little bit as well, but models have downgraded this features somewhat. We could see some better s.hemi energy arriving mid to late next week. Read more for details.

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Not much new to report today. We’re going to continue to see mostly small surf through the weekend and early next week. Southerly exposures are running ankle to waist high when the tide is working, but otherwise could be flat at high tide. There should be a little pulse of long-period SSW (190-200) arriving Thursday/Friday for a few more knee to waist high+ waves at standouts.

Westerly exposures are still seeing a little wind swell mostly in the ankle to waist high range as well. Winds are expected to increase a little bit out of the NW the next couple of days this will add some extra texture and chop to the surface but also a little size. Overall you can expect standouts to be seeing knee to chest high waves along the exposed coast with maybe more consistency over the weekend. The charts continue to show things increasing a bit more over the weekend and early next week, but global models are not really on board with this. We’ll have to wait and see. I’ll have more updates on Monday, but I have a feeling its going to be downgraded.

Beyond that, we’re expecting some new long-period southern hemisphere energy to arrive from the S-SSW (175-200) early next week (Monday). It’s going to start off a bit slow, but we should start to see a few more knee to waist high sets on Monday, with size increasing possibly into the knee to chest high range at standouts and magnets Tuesday and Wednesday next week. The strongest energy does look a little steep as its coming from a system south of Easter Island so it will likely be inconsistent and a bit spotty.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 10th small pulse of SSW shows up for a few more knee to waist high, maybe waist high+ waves at standout southerly exposures. Wind swell perks up a little bit more as well, with knee to chest high waves.

Friday the 11th Standout W-NW exposures could be running knee to chest high. Standout southerly exposures likely to be running knee to waist high+.

Saturday the 12th Southerly exposures ease some. Wind swell could be running knee to chest high+

Sunday the 13th Wind swell could peak in the waist to chest high+ range along the exposed coast.

Monday the 14th small southerly swell starts to fill in, wind swell could build into the waist to chest high+ range if models are correct.

Tuesday the 15th knee to chest high southerly swell and a mix of wind swell.

Wednesday the 16th wind swell still looking a little suspect. Southerly exposures could be running knee to chest high, possibly bigger at top exposures.

Tropical Overview

Not much showing in the tropics right now. Long-range models show a 30% chance of a storm forming the next 5 days south of Cabo. There’s another area of low pressure being watched off the southern coast of Mexico. It has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. Global models don’t give it much of a chance though. I’ll keep an eye on it and report more on Monday.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Low pressure still expected to approach early next week, but doesn’t look like its going to do much more than being a few extra clouds and cooler temperatures to the region.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Still watching to see what happens with this low that’s supposed to pass below Tahiti and move NE over the next couple of days. Models continue to show it being on the weaker side, but strengthening again in the mid latitudes with a mostly N-NE trajectory when it nears the Pitcairn Islands.

As of right now it’s looking like it should at least produce some fun playful surf. The storm is supposed to produce 25-30 foot seas, and come within about 5000 miles of California. Not great, but with the decent trajectory and angle of the swell we could be at least looking at some waist to chest high+ surf at exposures that like the SSW (190-200) swell angle. The swell is expected to arrive around the 17th/18th, but it’s still too early to call, but I will follow up early next week. Stay tuned.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 14th of August. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster