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Smaller week this week, a little tropical energy and wind swell.

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Austin Gendron
by
(Monday) 7.17.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Wind swell looks like its going to be small to moderate through the week.  We’re expecting a little bit of inconsistent tropical swell from Fernanda midweek, otherwise sort of small summery surf in the forecast. Read more for details.

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San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

As I mentioned above, not a whole lot going on this week. W-NW exposures should continue to see waist to head high+ surf through. Most of the week. Wave heights might settle a little bit starting Tuesday, but not a whole lot different than what we’re seeing Monday.

For southern hemisphere energy and tropical swell, we’re expecting some small background swell from the SSW (200-210) and medium period energy from the S-SSW (180-205). Swell from Fernanda is going to be pretty inconsistent. The storm took a mostly westerly track, which means most of the swell’s energy will be focused towards Hawaii. There may still be a few surf able waves at southerly exposures in the knee to chest high range late Tuesday/Wednesday, but again surf will ease through the end of the week.

That’s about it, mostly mild weather through the week as well.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 17th Wind swell is expected to hold size (waist to head high+). Southern hemi on the smaller side (ankle to waist high).

Tuesday the 18th Wind swell starts to linger as winds let up a little, still likely waist to chest high+ surf at standouts. Southern hemi should be on the smaller side, but with potential sets as energy from Fernanda arrives and small background swell from the SSW fills in.

Wednesday the 19th Wind swell holds as a new mix of southern hemi begins to build. Size is hard to say, but there could be some unexpected set waves at southerly exposures thanks to background energy from the SSW and swell from Fernanda.

Thursday the 20th wind swell/swell mix holds. Southern hemi standout exposures continue to see small inconsistent surf in the knee to waist high+ range. Wave heights typically will be in the knee to chest high range, although a few magnets could be seeing chest high to head high+ sets.

Friday the 21st, southerly well mix eases more. Standout W-NW exposures expected to be running waist to chest high+.

Saturday the 22nd NW wind swell builds a little as S swell mix lingers. W-NW exposures could see waist to head high surf. Southerly exposures are expected to run ankle to waist high.

Sunday the 23rd W-NW exposures peak in the waist to head high range. Southerly exposures on the smaller side.

Tropical Overview

Swell from Fernanda is going to be pretty inconsistent, but potentially could bring some knee to waist high+ waves to standout S-SW exposures over the next couple of days. Beyond that, there are a couple other areas of interest in the tropics. The first has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, while the second has a 30% chance. Global models aren’t too keen on the idea of either turning into anything all that exciting, and the consensus is that they will continue to follow warm water west towards Hawaii instead of taking a more northward approach, which would be more ideal for producing surf in California.v

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

No swell makers at this time.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Not a whole lot worth talking about in the South Pacific… The most we’re looking at is some smaller background swell between now and the end of the month. Maybe enough to keep a few knee to waist high+ waves in the water at standouts southerly exposures.

There is one small system in the Tasman Sea that could generate some inconsistent (and still pretty small) SW (220-230) for around the end of the month. It’s not a very strong storm though, and the resulting swell will still have to make its way through the gauntlet of South Pacific Islands. If the fetch turns into something more notable, I’ll let you know.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 20th of July. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/