Solid WNW to close out the week, then some s.hemi, then a W-WNW

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Austin Gendron
(Wednesday) 4.19.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

I apologize for the late report this week, had to deal with a family emergency.  Anyways solid mid-long period WNW (280-300) in the water through the end of the work week, with another round due this weekend as well as some fun southern hemi swell, arriving Friday.    Read more for details.

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San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

Solid WNW-NW (280-300) will peak Thursday as winds strengthen a little bit out of the north. It’s hard to say exactly what affect those winds are going to have on the overhead high to double overhead+ surf along the exposed coast. With the winds blowing mostly northerly its possible that for some areas it will be directed more offshore, while a few other spots will be struggling with some onshore texture. Work taking a look though. Wave heights are expected to ease steadily on Friday and more so on Saturday.

As the WNW energy eases, we’re expecting some fun combo swell to arrive from the SSW (195-205). This looks like it could actually be a moderate sized pulse of swell, with around 2-3 feet of deepwater energy. For southerly exposures that typically means knee to chest high surf, but it’s possible for a few standouts to be seeing waist high to chest high surf consistently with set waves going head high to overhead even. Southern hemisphere energy tops out Saturday and will linger through early next week.

The next pulse of westerly swell is going to come from a series of lows headed for the West Coast this weekend through mid-next week. High pressure is going to help keep them mostly to the north, and it looks like the fetch should be generating about 20+ foot seas a few hundred miles off the coast before the low loses strength and takes a more northward track. That’s going to mean its likely to generate another pulse of medium period swell that should be arriving by the end of the weekend. Wave heights don’t look quite as big as the current pulse, and its possible that we are going to see onshore flow pick up a little bit as the low passes to the north.

When all is said and done though we’re expecting head high to well overhead surf along the exposed coast, with potential for some bigger sets at standouts. The increase in onshore winds next week will add some shorter-period energy early to mid-next week as well. That also means we could see conditions deteriorate through the first half of the week, with added onshore texture and bump.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 19th northerly winds will strengthen with varying results as far as conditions go. WNW swell peaks with overhead to double overhead+ surf.

Friday the 20th, Winds are expected to let up somewhat, allowing for potentially even better conditions along the exposed coast as wave heights ease from head high to well overhead+ to the chest to overhead+ range. Southern hemi swell builds.

Saturday the 21st conditions continue to look decent early on, maybe a little onshore in the afternoon. Wave heights are expected to be running waist to head high+ with some bigger sets at standout combo spots and southern hemisphere magnets.

Sunday the 22nd New westerly swell arrives overnight and builds into the overhead to double overhead range along the exposed coast. Conditions could be a little more onshore. S.hemi mixes in at southerly exposures.

Monday the 23rd W-WNW energy associated with passing lows maintains overhead to double overhead surf along the exposed coast. Conditions look questionably onshore.

Tuesday the 24th swell starts to ease, although winds could add some added short-period energy to the mix. Wave heights expected to continue running chest to overhead+ with onshore texture and bump.

Wednesday the 25th Wave heights expected to hold, although keeping an eye on increasing winds well with NW winds picking up. New southern hemi swell in the water will help maintain some waves at southerly exposures as well.

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Only noteworthy swell for next week at this point is potential for short-period winds well coming from a trough developing over the interior, with high pressure over the NE Pac.

It’s too early to call the details. Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Looking out at the Southern Hemisphere models, it looks like the next potential southern hemisphere swell is going to be coming together in a few days, showing on the 66 hour models.

The initial storm track isn’t actually all that good for California. The storm pushes northward after passing south of New Zealand. This means the swell has to pass through the swell grater known as Tahiti and French Polynesian Archipelago.

the good news is that the storm track continues to hold some good shape sending swell N-NE as it shifts east into a more open part of the swell window. From the looks of it. The series of systems should help support each other by piling up a decent dosage of energy. From the current looks of it, we’ll be seeing the mix of energy arriving on the 29th, potentially improving through the first couple days of May. We’ll have to wait and see though… its still pretty far out. Stay tuned.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 24th of April. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster