Spring storms continue through midweek, with WNW-NW energy do later in the week

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 4.16.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Solid W-WNW (280-300) that arrived on Sunday should peak Monday before backing off through midweek. We’re expecting unsettled weather for a few days as a series of storms systems move through the region. Swell mix picks up again Thursday with a long-period WNW-NW (290-310) and NW wind swell. Th mix will continue through the weekend as another long-period pulse arrives and small wind swell holds. Read more for details.

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Surfwise, Monday has mixed conditions depending on exposure to the westerly winds. Wave heights are in the overhead+ to double overhead+ range along the exposed coast. Less exposed areas are seeing cleaner surf, with size in the head high to well overhead range. Size should ease through the midweek, with lighter conditions due Tuesday morning. Onshores are expected to pick up again in the afternoon.

The second half of the week we’re expecting a new swell mix from a series of systems working their way across the North Pacific right now. The first pulse is due to arrive late Wednesday. Initially long-period energy from the WNW (290-310) but by Thursday morning winds associated with the passing storm are expected to kick up NW wind swell that will ride on top of the longer-period energy.

A second system moving along the Aleutians will generate another round of long-period swell energy for the weekend. Again, the associated storm is expected to move through and drive some breezy NW winds that could kick up wind swell on the surface of the longer-period energy…. Surfwise we’re expecting the mix of swell energy to generate chest to overhead+ surf along the exposed coast, with some standouts seeing sets going a couple feet overhead to well overhead. Conditions are going to be a bit wonky for W-NW exposures that aren’t sheltered from the winds. Southerly exposures could be in for a treat though…

A well angled system south of the Pitcairn Islands last week has sent a small to moderate sized pulse of S (175-185) should arrive late Friday, and build to a peak over the weekend. For breaks that can pick up swell from both hemispheres it could mean some fun combo swell through the weekend.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 16th breezy onshore and messy overhead to double overhead+ surf along the W-NW facing coastline. Cleaner at more protected breaks.

Tuesday the 17th surf starts to ease through the day. Looks like lighter winds in the morning, but likely onshores picking up again in the afternoon.

Wednesday the 18th keeping an eye on the weather/winds, but WNW-NW swell eases into the chest to overhead+ range. New W-NW swell mix arrives late.

Thursday the 19th WNW-NW swell builds through the day with new long-period energy in the mix. Wave heights could be running chest high to well overhead, Conditions expected to be breezy onshore again.

Friday the 20th surf along the exposed coast continues running chest high to well overhead with light to moderate onshore winds. S swell arrives late.

Saturday the 21st surf should hold as a secondary pulse of WNW-NW energy arrives. NW winds over outer waters expected to maintain moderate wind swell on the surface.

Sunday the 22nd, WNW-NW swell mix continues, with light to moderate onshores likely.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range models are suggesting we’re going to see another small to moderate pulse of WNW-NW (290-310) early to mid-next week.

It’s still kind of soon to call, as the pattern could very easily change over the next few days. I’ll keep an eye on it though and have updates on Thursday.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range forecast for the Southern Hemisphere continues to show a fairly active pattern south of the Pitcairn Islands this week, with one strong system taking a NE trajectory.

It’s not an ideal track, and the storm’s fetch pushes a bit farther east than the one that generated swell for the end of this week, but still could send some punchy S (175-185) for the second half of next week.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 19th.  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster