Stormy weather and mixed up swell through the week.

No Comments
Austin Gendron
(Monday) 3.12.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

We’re expecting an active weather pattern this week, with a series of storms bringing cooler temperatures rain and at times breezy onshore winds.  The surf is going to be fairly steady in the moderate to plus sized range with a few periods of bigger-stormier surf as the storm fronts move through. Read more for details.

To view the details of your local region click on your “Central California Surf Region”

San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

Low pressure moves through the region Tuesday, bringing the first round of rain and onshore winds. The swell mix will build into the head high to well overhead+ range along the exposed coast. Conditions aren’t looking very good due to mostly onshore winds, and the trend will continue through Wednesday as the next frontal system arrives.

Unfortunately the trend is expected to continue through the week. The surf will continue, but it looks like conditions are probably going to remain pretty unruly until the weekend. Swell is expected to ease Saturday and although it will be on the smaller waist to head high+ range Sunday conditions should start to ease some.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 12th New WNW swell mix starts to fill in, wave heights could build into the chest to overhead+ range with some standouts in the well overhead range.

Tuesday the 13th new SW-WNW energy fills in and wave heights could build into the head high to well overhead range+. Stormy weather will mean poor conditions for many areas. Spots that like southerly winds could be worth checking early on.

Wednesday the 14th larger WNW-WSW-S swell mix is expected to peak with most of the exposed coast seeing surf in the head high to well overhead+ range. Winds looking steady onshore.

Thursday the 15th The mix of WNW and WSW swell continues to bring chest to overhead+ surf to the exposed coast, possibly a little bigger at top exposures. Another storm front approaches.

Friday the 16th Stormy weather with rain and onshore winds due as the swell mix builds back into the head high to well overhead+ range with messier conditions.

Saturday the 17th, the swell mix is expected to start easing through the day. Wave heights expected to be running chest high to overhead high+.

Sunday the 18th swell mix expected to continue backing off, into the waist high to head high+ range. Conditions could improve as we experience a break in the storms.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The long-range models are a crapshoot at this point. It’s that time of year where the models are fairly inconsistent, and with a stormy pattern ahead of us its uncertain how accurate the models actually are. Either way, the current models are showing the stormy pattern continuing next week, with a fairly potent wet storm arriving late Monday/Tuesday.

It looks like the system could tap into sub tropical moisture early next week, spinning up a good amount of rain for the Central Coast and Southern California Monday night/Tuesday.

As far as the surf goes, it’s still too early to call, but this is a very localized system, and if it is as strong as the models are hinting, it could bring a solid southerly wind swell to Central California and a more westerly pulse for Southern California. In addition the storm track looks like its going to generate NW energy to mix in as well. I’ll have more details later in the week. Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Minimal swell coming out of the South Pacific at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 15th.  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster