Wind swell to start things off, keeping an eye on more stormy weather next week

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 2.19.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Large windblown mix of of NW (285-315) to start off the week.  The swell mix relaxes Tuesday and Wednesday as conditions improve.  There will be some small to moderate long-period WNW-NW (285-300) helping maintain playful surf still.  Potentially looking at another episode of NW wind swell Thursday/Friday as another round of moderate to plus sized long-period swell fills in.  Read more for details.

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San Francisco | San Mateo | Santa Cruz | Monterey | SLO County

Breezy NW winds following Sunday’s storm are going to drive wind swell up. Through the day. Conditions are going to be a bit of a mess along the exposed coast. Conditions are supposed to let up as the swell backs off Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be some small long-period swell filling in late Tuesday, bringing some playful waist to head high+, possibly bigger along the exposed coast. The swell should hold through Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Looking a bit further out, the. Models are showing another round of long-period swell energy tracking across the North Pacific. It should arrive Friday, and build to a peak Saturday/Sunday. As of right now wave heights are expected too be running chest to overhead+, with sets going a bit bigger at standouts and magnets.

There could be a wrench in the gears as a low pressure system approaches late in the week… models aren’t in great agreement, but it doesn’t look like it will be a wet system at this time. Instead breezy NW winds could drive another round of wind swell late Thursday and Friday. Conditions will improve though as the swell peaks over the weekend.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 19th new NW wind swell mix to peak through the day with head high to well overhead+ surf along the exposed coast. Cleaner conditions and smaller surf at protected breaks

Tuesday the 20th surf eases through the day. Winds are supposed to shift more offshore in the morning, but could return onshore in the afternoon. Cold overnight temperatures

Wednesday the 21st new WNW swell adds to the easing NW wind swell mix and is expected to help maintain surf heights in the waist to head high+ range (possibly a little bigger at better standouts).

Thursday the 22nd Keeping an eye on new long-period WNW and NW wind swell building. Conditions could be a bit messy long the exposed coast. Wave heights expected to increase to head high to well overhead at standouts.

Friday the 23rd NW wind swell/ building long period energy maintain wave heights in the head high to well overhead range, winds could be a breezy onshore.

Saturday the 24th, wind swell eases as a ridge of high pressure builds and cleans ups the long-period swell. Wave heights expected to be running head high to well overhead at standouts.

Sunday the 25th watching for new NW swell mix associated with troughing over the west coast. Likely to be stronger onshore winds and wind swell in the mix as well.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range models are showing a possible shift in the synoptic pattern later this week. High pressure could start to push more northwest towards the Aleutians. This would open up the storm track to drop a trough down through the Gulf of Alaska.

It’s still too early to call, but we could be looking at a generally more winter like pattern setting in by mid-next week. Stay tuned for details.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Minimal swell coming out of the South Pacific at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 22nd.  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster

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