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Adam Wright
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(Tuesday) 8.10.10

Latest long-range forecast – small SW swell and some weak windswell…like eating leftovers for 2 weeks straight

Adam’s Long-Range Forecast – The hodgepodge of overlapping S-SW swells and weak local windswell will continue to push through this week, sending in mostly small surf that is even more tide (and wind) sensitive than usual. Fortunately there are a few windows for waves and morning winds seem pretty manageable for the next few days. Looks like a good week to break out the small-wave boards and vintage death-logs.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (slow summertime)
Not a lot of change swellwise…the mix of weak/playful S-SW energy from the Southern Hemi and the soft local windswell will continue on Tuesday. Look for mostly knee-waist high surf at the average S facing spots with some chest-high+ sets at the standouts. The tides will play a big role in the shape…so try and time the tide with the proper spot. Winds/Weather: Overcast and slightly eddyish in the morning…look for light and variable winds for most areas with a touch of onshore S-SW winds at the really exposed spots. Overall it should be clean, but watch for areas of onshore texture at spots sensitive to the southerly winds.

Wednesday – (Weak combo keeps us in the water.)
The combo of S-SW swell (180-220) and weak local windswell continues through mid-week. Look for knee high+ surf on the sets at the average S-SW facing spots. Standout S facing breaks will have some waist-chest high waves. Winds/Weather: Weak winds in the morning, mostly light and variable with some onshore texture at the most exposed areas. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-12 knots by late in the afternoon.

Thursday – (Weak combo keeps us in the water…wait did I just write that?)
Look more background combo mix continues to show on Thursday…S-SW energy…some fading, some arriving…all mixing with some small but building local windswell late in the day. Knee high surf continues to show at the average S facing spots while the standouts see some waist-chest high sets.Winds/Weather: Weak winds in the morning, mostly light and variable with some onshore texture at the most exposed areas. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-12 knots by late in the afternoon.

Friday (do I even have to write this part?)
Seriously go back to the Thursday section, replace “Thursday” with Friday and viola!…there you go. No I am not kidding. Winds/Weather: Weak winds in the morning, mostly light and variable with some onshore texture at the most exposed areas. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-12 knots by late in the afternoon.

Long-Range

North Pacific
Still close to the most boring part of the ocean in world right now (the actual part being in some sort of sea or something somewhere…honestly I don’t really feel like looking for it.

South Pacific
As you can obviously tell from my shorter range section…I am really, really, and I mean really (no not really) excited for the small mix of weak S and SW swells that filter through over the next few days

Fortunately…there are a few signs of life starting to brew back to life in the South Pacific…they are still a few days out…but they are on the way. Check out the pressure/wind GFS model that starts getting all frisky around Sunday.

It actually has a couple of storms spin through before this bigger one forms, but they have more of a zonal path through the area, rather than the NE push that follows the front of this storm.

The extra south/north movement seems to coincide with a bit of energy bridging over from the tropics, which should end up helping to strengthening the whole system. At this point it looks like this new swell will be heading north by this coming weekend…eventually hitting Southern California around the 20-21st with some shoulder-head high+ surf at the standouts

Even further out it doesn’t look like this storm slows down much after the initial front passes through…the long-range charts are showing it getting even stronger…possibly building to close to 40-45’ seas in the “good” area of fetch. I don’t want to put a lot of stock in this one yet…but there is a chance at a bigger S-SSW swell hitting around the 24-25th…we are definitely going to want to keep an eye on this one.

Tropics
Well Tropical Storm Estelle formed, tracked toward our swell window, then died and became a remnant low pressure before really moving into any sort of decent position. No waves expected from her…or her leftovers.

Forecasts are showing some possible reformation in about the same area as Estelle’s leftovers…but they are giving it a pretty low percentage of becoming anything meaningful over the next few days.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, August 12, 2010.

 

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