Surf Forecast Overview
Overcast skies start creep in overnight in response to the eddy reforming on Friday. These conditions are likely to last the weekend and into early next week, but are forecast to weaken as we head into Sunday and Monday. Overall it looks like playful surf…nothing very big, but at least a consistent blend of WNW-NW windswell and less consistent pulses of SSW-SW swell. The trick will be navigating the tides, occasional pockets of crumbly conditions and long waits between waves at the lesser exposed spots. If you are up to the challenge you should be able to get out and ride a few waves here and there, but keep in mind that bringing the right gear, watching the winds, picking the right break, and staying on top of the tides will help maximize your fun.
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Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast
North Pacific Swell Forecast
Still no changes for the North Pacific…the pattern of high-pressure holding reign over the mid-latitudes from just off the California Coast to somewhere N of Hawaii continues, which means there is still no solid storms expected to form in the NPAC just that continued series of cold fronts that push off of Asia and mix with sub-tropical energy just offshore of Japan.
These storms see a brief period of intensification but basically fall apart as they are forced to squeeze under the Aleutians and end up as just ghosts of themselves as they finally move into the Gulf of Alaska. About the only real influence they have is to drop a trough of low-pressure down the West Coast and speed up the NW winds that blow along the California Coast.
Swellwise it is these enhanced winds that have been generating our local WNW-NW windswell and will continue to do so for at least the next week. You can see on the swell height images that the winds along the coast will be strengthening and weakening over the next several days, so we can expect the windswell to pulse up and down as reflection of the changes in the outer waters.
South Pacific Swell Forecast
Not much change from our forecast earlier this week…just waiting for that high-pressure that is blocking up the good parts of swell window to be shaken loose (anybody got any high-pressure ex-lax?).
SW swell from some strong storms under Australia and NZ (that sent waves to the Tavaura Contest) moves in on Friday and holds over the weekend but it will have both passed through the SPAC Island Shadow and will also see some blockage from our local Nearshore Islands…so rideable waves from this storm will be inconsistent at best. Mostly it will be knee-chest high sets at the average SW facing breaks but there will be some very inconsistent bigger sets mixing it at the standouts…keep in mind by inconsistent I mean it…the waits between any sort of bigger set will try anyone’s patience. Again you can see how much energy gets chewed out the swell on the swell-period forecast chart (this one is for the next swell that arrives closer to the middle of June.
We finally see some traction in our storm activity later in the forecast…with a system pushing underneath New Zealand in about 5-days.
This storm doesn’t move to a great position, it still is stuck in the South Pacific Island Shadow, but at least we aren’t adding New Zealand to that shadowing. If this storm manages to form, and it really isn’t anything to be very excited about, we could see some minor SW swell (210-220) hitting around June 22-23. What I am hoping is that this storm will be able to dislodge the high-pressure, or at least link up with some low-latitude warm air-masses and erode a big enough gap in the high that following storms might be able to exploit it. Unfortunately there isn’t anything significant in the storm track, but crossing my fingers we see that change relatively soon.
Tropical Forecast Outlook
No new tropical storms are expected to form over the next couple of days.
The next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, June 11, 2012.