There will be a solid run of S and SW swell showing this week with good sized surf holding through Tuesday and into early Wednesday. The swell does eventually back down but expect plenty of rideable waves and mostly good conditions to hold through week and on into the weekend.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Tuesday – (Another S-swell comes in off the top ropes)
New S swell (180-190) peaks on Tuesday as it mixes with a bunch of leftover energy from the weekend and some building local windswell. Most S facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets mixing in on the lower tides. The standout S facing spots, mostly in Orange County (and a few other top summer breaks), will be in the shoulder-head high+ range with some sets going overhead to even a couple of feet overhead on those lower tides. It looks like there is enough windswell to keep some semi-corners at the beach breaks…but definitely count on the points and reefs to have the best shape. Winds/Weather: Winds look clean for the morning…mostly light/variable to light/offshore early…then building onshore flow by the afternoon.
Check out how the swell, wind, and tides, affects the different Southern California regions…(click on each one to get a sub-regional forecast…and if you click one of the “surf break” links, you can even get spot-specific winds and weather for each break)…Santa Barbara, Ventura, North LA, the South Bay, North Orange County, South Orange County, North San Diego, South San Diego.
Wednesday – (Plenty of summer surf)
The S swell will continue to peak/hold on Wednesday while another, smaller pulse of SW energy (210-220) will push in through the background and mixes with our local windswell. Again most of the average S facing spots see shoulder-head high sets while the standouts see some overhead+ waves mixing it up through the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Weak winds in the morning, mostly light and variable with some onshore texture at the most exposed areas. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-12 knots by late in the afternoon.
Thursday – (slowing down…just a little)
The mix of S-Swell (180-190) finally starts to slow down on Thursday but will continue to blend with some SW energy and local windswell…and while the overall mix is a little weaker, there will still be plenty of waves. Average breaks hold around chest-shoulder high with head high sets showing steady through the morning but becoming less consistent through the afternoon/evening. Winds/Weather: Weak winds in the morning, mostly light and variable with some onshore texture at the most exposed areas. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-12 knots by late in the afternoon.
Friday (More surf!…wow! who would have thought?)
The S swell (180-190) fades on Friday but still conjures up some decent sized surf at the standout breaks. The average spots back more into the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high sets still showing at times. The standout S facing beaches and the top combo spots, still mostly in the OC, see some shoulder-head high surf with some occasionally bigger sets showing at the best breaks on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Winds look clean for the morning…mostly light/variable to light/offshore early…then building onshore flow by the afternoon.
A little bit of life is starting to showing in the NPAC…high-pressure is still locking things down pretty tight…but like I mentioned on Monday things are sort of starting to look a little more active in the NPAC…high-pressure is still in full effect…but it is repositioning a bit further south, giving Socal better weather, and opening a small gap up around the Aleutians. I am still not expecting any significant storm/swell action from this part of the ocean…but there is some increasing activity that is going to send in some medium/short-period NW energy around the same time as the bigger S swells…and we may see some enhanced windswell around that time as well.
We have several days of S and SW swell that are going to hitting all week long…good-sized surf for the next few days, but easily rideable surf all the way through the end of the week.
Further out there is another set of fetch, that while it shows strong on the wave model, doesn’t line up all that well for Socal. It has some initial energy heading towards us that will send in more S-swell (180) that arrives around Aug 29-30…but it looks like this one will be aimed much more toward South America…but with decent, but getting progressively smaller, S-SW swell as you move into Central American and on up in Socal. At this point I think it looks good for some chest-shoulder high surf for our standouts, but a lot will depend on how fast this one moves out.
Tropical Storm Frank formed up in the EPAC…but he has a long way to go before becoming a wave maker for Socal…check out the tropical update from earlier today.
the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, August 26, 2010.