If you have been reading the long-range forecasts or even remotely paying attention to the swell models you probably already know that a strong storm is currently tearing up the South Pacific storm track and is already starting to send out a hefty dose of Southern Hemi swell for the middle of next week. This system is big enough and moving along such a good track, that its swell will light up breaks all over Central California, Southern California, Mexico, and Central America. While it will be good sized everywhere, each region has some differences in overall height and timing of the swell’s peak, so we thought it would helpful to break it down by the different surf zones.
Mexico and Central America
Central America and Mainland Mexico will be the first targets in this swell spitting rampage. The long-period forerunners around 24 to 25 seconds should start showing up late Tuesday night, first getting channeled into deepwater breaks throughout the region. The swell will build overnight into Wednesday (June 5). Swell heights are expected to build into the 6 to 8 foot range from the SSW-SW (210-220).
As you can see in this image a good chunk of that will be showing up Thursday and Friday as the swell peaks. Wave heights will be quite larger than 6 to 8 feet though. With the long-periods around 18 to 20 seconds, this should mean some of the less exposed areas will be seeing overhead to several feet overhead surf, but standouts will be running several feet overhead to double overhead+ with top spots and the biggest deepwater spots seeing size peak at double overhead to triple overhead, with areas like Puerto seeing some sets in the 15 to 25+ foot range.
There will be some other hot spots throughout the region, as well, deepwater reefs and outer island breaks that have deeper under water channels leading up to them, allowing for the maximum amount of energy to explode on the break. Here are a few key areas we suspect could have some more exceptional size.
The swell is expected to peak Thursday-Saturday before slowly letting up into early the following week. There may be a small overlapping pulse helping to keep wave heights running in the plus size range Sunday the 9th/Monday the 10th.
This storm moved into a great position for Southern California, where it was east enough to be clear of the South Pacific Island Shadow, but still in a spot where it could track toward the region and push out a good-sized chunk of SSW swell.
The long-period forerunners of this incoming SSW swell (185-205) will start to arrive on Wednesday (June 5), starting off a little slow in the morning but then really starting to pick up steam by the afternoon. The swell will build overnight into Thursday (June 6) where it will start to peak and set up surf in the shoulder-high to several feet overhead range for the average spots. The standout breaks, the spots that can really focus the long-period energy and SSW swell direction, will see consistent overhead surf with sets going 8-10 feet on the face…with the potential for some even bigger waves lighting up a few of the absolute top spots on and off throughout the day. Expect the swell to continue to hold strong into Friday and early Saturday (June 7-8) before slowly starting to back down.
Central California like Southern California has a fairly decent exposure to this swell as it comes in from the SSW (195-210). The long-period forerunners around 23 to 25 seconds should start to show in the evening on Wednesday, very sporadically to start. Periods that long will be channeled into small areas at first, but as the swell builds overnight into Thursday (June 6). By Thursday morning we’re looking at about 2-3 feet of deepwater swell with periods around 22-23 seconds. That kind of energy can take a small 3 feet and concentrate it in certain areas to generate shoaling heights 2-3 times that.
As the swell continues to build and peak Thursday and Friday we’ll start seeing certain hot spots around along the Central California Coast pushing the overhead to several feet overhead mark.
Deepwater breaks that can really concentrate the energy could be seeing even bigger sets. Wave heights could hold through the weekend before slowly backing off next week.
Needless to say…there will be a lot of waves hitting all over the Eastern side of the Pacific Basin…(heck areas from Alaska down through South America are going to get some energy from this storm). Once this sucker starts to peak make sure to watch the ocean for a while before paddling out…and more importantly stay safe! Happy Hunting!
Adam Wright and Austin Gendron
Solspot Forecast Team