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Adam Wright
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(Monday) 8.30.10

Weak mix of small Southern Hemi energy and local windswell

Mostly clean, slightly inconsistent, and sometimes playful surf will be on tap for the next couple of days. Look for the overall blend of background/leftover Southern Hemi swells and the local windswell to drop off later in the week so may want to plan to do more chores around then.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Check out how the swell, wind, and tides, affects the different Southern California regions…(click on each one to get a sub-regional forecast…and if you click one of the “surf break” links, you can even get spot-specific winds and weather for each break)…Santa Barbara, Ventura, North LA, the South Bay, North Orange County, South Orange County, North San Diego, South San Diego.

Tuesday – (Clean and rideable)
The mix of overlapping, but semi-playfully sized, Southern Hemi swells and local windswell will continue to show on Tuesday. Most spots will continue to see knee-waist high surf. Standout S-SW facing spots and the excellent combo breaks will be more waist-chest high in size with some inconsistent chest-shoulder high waves sneaking into the top spots. Winds/Weather: Winds look light and variable for most of our areas in the morning. Even a few spots, near passes and canyons, see some light-offshore flow. Onshore winds pick up around 10-11am and push in out of the W around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.

Wednesday – (dropping slightly but the morning looks decent)
The mix of S-SW swells (180-220), none of which are very big, and local windswell will continue through midweek. Look for knee to occasionally waist high surf for most exposed spots. Standout S-facing combo spots see some chest high and slightly bigger sets sneaking through on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Winds remain light through the morning…either variable and glassy or light offshore for most areas. Look for building onshore winds around midday and then W winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon

Thursday – (dropping a bit more)
The surf backs down a bit more as the blend of Southern Hemi swells (180-220 from a few different but weak systems) drops slightly…local windswell backs down as well. Look for the average break to drop into the ankle-knee high range with some inconsistent waist high sets. The standout S-facing combo spots still see more consistent knee-waist high surf…with an occasional little chest high peak as the windswell mixes in. Winds/Weather: Winds remain light through the morning…either variable and glassy or light offshore for most areas. Look for building onshore winds around midday and then W winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon

Friday – (Might have to break out the big board)
The mix of swell finally runs out of energy…oh it doesn’t go completely flat…but our surf will be mostly leftovers and severely shadowed SW swells (180-220) and steep NW windswell (295-300) that won’t do much for us. Average spots can expect ankle-knee high surf while the standout breaks see some waist high+ sets. Expect long waits between the sets…and the swampthing to kill it off as the tide gets a bit too high. Winds/Weather: Winds look clean for the morning…mostly light/variable to light/offshore early…then building onshore flow by the afternoon. Expect W winds 10-12 hitting by mid-afternoon.

Long-Range

North Pacific
There still is not much going on in the North Pacific…and there is really no long-period swell showing in our swell window at all.

There is a little bit of space for winds to push through our outer waters that will keep windswell going for the next couple of days…but then high-pressure shifts more “over” Socal later in the week and it looks like the windswell will take a break through Thursday/Friday, possibly spinning back up over the upcoming weekend.

South Pacific
The SPAC has been a bit on the quiet side (at least for Socal) for the last few days as well. It looks like a blend of mostly small, sometimes inconsistent, sometimes playful, S and SW swells pushing in from some minor storms as we move throughout the week. At this point I am not really expecting much over chest high…but there may be a few bigger sets occasionally hitting the standout breaks.

Further out the SPAC has been pretty zonal…high-pressure has been owning our S-SSW swell window since the storm that generated the bigger S swell for last week pushed through. It was still letting a couple of storms set up close to Chile, but it looks like those swells are almost exclusively for Central and South America. I am basically expecting a slow start to September (at least as wear the SPAC is concerned)

Things are looking better near the end of the charts…with a couple of systems threatening to strengthen on the edges of our swell window…some over by New Zealand…and another in a more southerly position. These…if they even pull together…would have some stronger S-SW swell heading our way for around the middle of the month. Let’s cross our fingers that something stronger brews together before we sit around waiting for those swells to arrive.

Tropics
Nothing happening in our neck of the tropical woods at this point…there is a little bit of thunderstorm action off of Mexico…

But the NHC is only giving it a 30% chance at becoming more organized over the next couple of days.

It looks like conditions in the region may improve as we head toward the end of the week…so at least keep an eye on the tropics…I won’t be totally surprised if something spins up by this weekend.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, September 2, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/

 

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