Yep…our first hurricane of the 2015 season will be a swell-maker. Hurricane Andres is currently cruising about 700 miles SW of the tip of Baja, which puts him pretty square in the Socal swell window.
Andres is a relatively decent looking storm…he began to develop during the last part of the work week, slowly strengthening while moving to the NW around 8-mph. Over the last 24-hours Andres has grown stronger and as of this morning was holding with 90-knot sustained winds and gust upwards of 110-knots. While these are decent numbers the core winds aren’t all that big, hurricane force winds only extend out about 30-40 miles from the center of the storm…however the tropical storm level winds are quite a bit bigger, pushing nearly 140 miles out from the storm’s eye.
At this point it looks like the overall size of the storm and the storm’s track to the NW that will give the incoming tropical swell a bit of a boost. The core wind speeds in the storm will add a little extra gravy to the new pulse of swell, pushing in a bit more size and consistency for the exposed spots, but really the hard work is going to be done by the size, track, and positioning of this system.
The only bad part about Andres is his forecasted track…initially it looked like Andres would continue to push more to the N-NNW as he began to slip along the Baja coast, but the latest track has him swinging more to the WNW and tracking toward Hawaii. This change of direction means that we will see the bulk of the swell start to swing away from the coast, however due to the storms bigger ‘footprint’ we will continue to see some swell for at least a couple of days after the peak before it totally backs down.
So what does this swell mean to Socal from a surf standpoint? Based on the storm’s track and strength we will begin to see some trace tropical SE swell hitting later Sunday afternoon. I don’t expect a ton of new surf from this initial pulse of energy, but it will mix with some of the other Southern Hemi swell leftovers we have in the water and will likely be rideable before the peak arrives. As for the peak of the swell…we can expect it to arrive throughout the day on Monday (June 1) and on into Tuesday (June 2) before it starts to back down. Current estimates have the energy hitting with 3-4’ feet of deepwater energy and swell periods right around 12-14 seconds. These sort of deepwater sizes get pushed up a bit as the swell begins to shoal…so we can expect the average S-SE facing spots to see consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets hitting while the swell peaks. The standout SE-SSE facing spots, particularly the ones that like tropical energy/swell-periods, will have more consistent shoulder-overhead surf with the potential for sets going a couple of feet overhead at times.
All in all…not a bad way to start the tropical season (thanks El Nino)…now if the tropics can keep up the momentum we may see a pretty good summer/fall…keep your fingers crossed.Tags: 2015, 2015 hurricane season, Baja Sur tropical swell, East Pacific, East Pacific Tropics, Hurricane, Hurricane Andres, S swell, SE swell, Socal Surf Forecast, Southern California Tropical Swell, SSE swell, TD-01E, Tropical Storm, Tropical Storm Andres, Tropical Surf Forecast, Tropical Swell, TS Andres