Back to back S-SSW swells keep us rolling into May

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Adam Wright
(Monday) 5.1.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Not a lot of changes to the current surf forecast…the new S-SSW swells have started filling in (there were even hiding under the lumpy windswell and chunkiness we had over the weekend)…and will eventually peak over the next few days. The long-range charts are pretty empty, at least until you reach the very end, but that is still a ways off and hasn’t even begun to develop in realtime.

Get the live buoy forecast graph here – http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise for the next couple of days we are going to get overlapping S-SSW swells (180-210) as well as a pretty consistent stream of local NW windswell (280-300). At this point we can expect some sort of rideable size and shape pretty much at any S-SSW exposed spot as well as some fluky windswell at the NW facing beaches…however Wednesday-Friday will be the peak days for this swell mix.

On average we can expect our S facing beaches to be in the waist-shoulder high range…while the standout summer beaches and excellent combo spots see some shoulder-head high+ sized sets. A few of the top breaks, the real S swell/Combo swell focal spots, will have some bigger sets on the best days.

Overall winds look pretty decent…we will see a weak eddy for much of the work-week…however the winds are forecast to stay below the 3-5 knot range and mostly push out of the S-SE during the mornings, which may leave a little texture at the more exposed beaches, but stay manageable if you have anything, even a little more seaweed) to knock down a bit of the light texture.

Get more details on the Short Range Conditions in the Surf Region Forecasts:

Santa Barbara Ventura North LA County The South Bay
North Orange County South Orange County North San Diego South San Diego

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Still pretty quite in the short-range NPAC forecast…the next several days some activity under the Aleutians, but nothing that really makes it to our swell window with any sort of strength.

The extreme long-range is showing a bit more activity in the North Pacific forming in about 5-6 days. There are two spots worth watching…the bigger more organized storm N of Hawaii (which while it looks better on these charts probably won’t translate into much surf for Socal) and a closer patch of fetch that begins to form up much closer to the West Coast later in the work week.

If this up-close system does form we potentially see a new round of stronger NW windswell and localized sloppy/breezy conditions to go along with them. We will keep an eye on this stuff and let you know what is lining up for next weekend later in the week.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

We have a couple of nice S-SSW swells (180-220) that will arrive fast on May 2 and will eventually peak around May 3-5. Like I mentioned last week…this mix is showing about 2’ of deepwater energy on the WavewatchIII computer models…in fact a few of the projections look more like 2.5’- 3.0’ but after looking at the ASCAT satellite winds I think they might be overcalling it. At minimum we need to keep in mind that the Southern Hemi energy will run into consistency issues (all long-period swells have ‘em), but these may be aggravated by some of the swell’s energy passing through the South Pacific Islands as well as the swell decay that we get from swells tracking in from several thousand miles away.

Further out we see a lot of the SPAC storm-track slip into a more zonal pattern. There is still a few storms that will make the NE move that we need to line up winds with our swell windows but they don’t look all that strong or even move all that well.

Things do pick up in the extreme charts…but these guys are also about a week from forming…maybe more. If they do live up to the projections they would be in a position to send more Southern Hemi swell our way for the second half of May, however I wouldn’t hold my breath until they actually start to develop.

The next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, May 8, 2017.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster