Wind swell mid week, better W-WNW and S-SSW swells due next week

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 3.11.19

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

A mix of steep long-period NW (300+) and some small background energy from the southern hemisphere are bringing some small but playful waves to standout breaks across the region.  There’s a couple storm systems moving through the area as well bringing some slightly unsettled weather that could continue through midweek, at which point the pressure gradient is going to turn on strong and bring breezy W-NW winds down the coast.  That’s going to mean increased wind swell late Tuesday and Wednesday.  The second half of the week smaller surf for W-NW exposures, but we could see a slight uptick in surf at southerly exposures ahead of the weekend.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Long story short… surf’s been small, but we’ve still been seeing some playful knee to chest high waves sneaking around Pt. Conception, with a few small waves from the southern hemisphere crossing things up.  Today we’ve got a weak little storm headed down towards Baja, that’s adding some texture to the surface.  Another system moves east on Tuesday, and then high pressure builds behind them kicking off a strong W-NW wind event.  Winds will ramp up Tuesday afternoon/evening.

The stormy mix of swell should mean waist to head high+ wind waves along the exposed coast, possibly bigger on Wednesday, but it’s going to be pretty mixed up for most places.  The winds could start to shift more light and variable/offshore Thursday and possibly even lighter by Friday morning as the swell starts to subside, revealing more promising looking surf.

Looking out towards the weekend we’re going to see smaller surf for the typical wintery spots.  Conditions are looking pretty good though, and there should still be some surf.  Southerly exposures are expecting a series of S-SSW (185-195) pulses.  It’s not going to be anything of substantial size as the storms which were near the Pitcairn Islands were pretty weak, but positioned well enough that we’re probably going to mean knee to waist high waves, with some standouts potentially seeing waist to chest high waves through during the peak fo the swell Saturday-Tuesday of next week…. not to bad for mid March.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Tuesday the 12th semi-stormy weather moves through the region and starts kicking up breezy W-NW winds. Wind swell builds late in the day.

Wednesday the 13th winds are expected to be onshore and breezy.  Surf will be mostly short period wind swell kicked up by the storm.  Wave heights expected to peak in the afternoon around waist to head high+ along the exposed coast.  Conditions could be a little tricky through the day, but possibly improving late.

Thursday the 14th weather starts trending better, with leftover swell, and more northerly winds could mean surfable conditions…

Friday the 15th lighter conditions and smaller leftovers in the knee to waist high+ range at standouts.  New southern hemi swell starts filling in.

Saturday the 16th Weather continues to be a little nicer, southern hemi should mean knee to waist high+ surf at standout southerly exposures.

Sunday the 17th the southern hemi mix continues to bring small but playful waves to the region’s standout summer spots

Monday the 18th s.hemi background swell continues with minimal help from the North Pacific with light conditions continue.

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long range models have been pretty sucky lately both from a technical perspective and from a surf perspective.  We’ve finally got a good sign showing up though, with a new storm pushing along the low to mid latitudes later in the week.

It’s still a bit far out, but this storm is prime for sending a well angled pulse of westerly swell towards socal around the 20th/21st.  It’s not the strongest storm but could still generate solid 30+ foot seas as it passes the dateline.  The storm looks strong enough to generate some long-period swell, with 18-20 second forerunners that would arrive late next Tuesday and build to a peak through midweek.  As of right now size is expected to be decent, and could produce some moderate to plus sized waves at standouts.  It’s still too early to call though.  Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The South Pacific has had some murmurs lately, and it’s looking like it’s gearing up for another small round of background surf in the near future.

The key to this swell is the angle of the fetch, which is directed almost ideally towards Southern California.  It’s not a super strong storm, with only 25+ foot seas, but it should still be able to deliver some consistent southerly swell to exposed beaches mid-next week.  Combined with the larger W-WNW it looks like there could be some solid combo energy.  In some cases the smaller SSW could be covered up by the larger NPac swell, but for some of the more sheltered combo spots it could be really fun.  Stay tuned

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster