A couple more days to score some playful sized waves

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 10.3.16

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

SURF TRIP GIVEAWAY…..details in surf forecast! SSW (190-200) leftover from the weekend eases through the first half of the week as windswell holds for a couple more days.  Winds should shift more offshore through the second half of the week as high pressure builds.  Smaller background energy from the Southern Hemisphere expected to take over for the end of the week and upcoming weekend.  Read more for details.

Get the live buoy forecast graph here – http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

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SSW (190-200) leftovers are going to mean easing swell through midweek.  Standouts Monday could still be running waist to chest high+ still.  In addition we’ve got windswell sticking around through midweek, continuing to bring knee to chest high surf to standout W-NW exposures.  Although the combo energy will trail of fa bit more Tuesday, the windswell should continue to at least produce some surf along the exposed coast.  I know that doesn’t sound too exciting, but there should at least be some surfable waves through at least midweek.  Conditions might be a little funky each afternoon with the increasing sea breeze, but mornings could still be pretty fun.  There’s a deeper high tide mid to late morning the next couple of days but its expected to recover as it moves into the afternoons over the upcoming weekend.

The end of the work week and the weekend are going to be on the smaller side unfortunately.  High pressure building will mean more of an offshore trend, cutting off the windswell source.  There will be some smaller background S-SSW (180-200) in the water helping keep some small knee to waist high+ waves rolling in at standout summer spots, but for the most part there wont be much swell to take advantage of the cleaner conditions…. Hopefully that will all change next week though…. Check out the long-range forecast for more details.

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The North Pacific is starting to warm up, and this weeks forecast shows some pretty good signs of seeing more solid surf in the near future.  If you go back and look at the first NPac image I used (42 hours out) I circled a little system emerging from south of the Kamchatka Peninsula.

It looks like that system will strengthen as it approaches the dateline through the middle of the week.  It weakens a little bit after crossing the dateline, but a series of lows are going to follow…

The initial pulse will be entering the Gulf of Alaska over the weekend, but more interesting is the follow up pulses, that will capitalize on the chaos  south of the Aleutians, and it looks like we could see some strengthening as they approach the Gulf of Alaska.

It’s looking like at least Central California could be in for some solid surf next week.  The storms are looking a little steep for Southern California, but should still be able to swing some energy into the region.  It’s hard to say how big, but as of right now we’re at least expecting some long 18-20 second swell arriving on Monday, and could be seeing more solid energy mid next week.  I’ll have more details later in the week.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range southern hemi models continue to show some weaker activity south of the Pitcairn Islands mid this week.  Most of the storms fetch has a more easterly trajectory towards Chile, but it looks like at least some of it will break off to the N-NE.

It’s not looking like much (probably knee to chest high surf) but still should send a couple of weaker pulses of S-SSW (180-200) background energy towards Socal and a few southern hemi magnets in Central California for the  12th-13th with maybe a little extra pulse around the 14th/15th.  Doesn’t look like much, but could be enough to at least bring some playful combo energy to Southern California late next week.

The next long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, October 6, 2016.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster

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