All the swells in the water this week…. Plenty of fun surf to go around

Austin Gendron
(Monday) 9.26.16

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

SURF TRIP GIVEAWAY…..details in surf forecast! Lots of swell in the water still as SW (200-210) lingers through the first half of the week.  A surprise little tropical swell is due for Wednesday as well as new SSW (190-200).  The s.hemi will be overlapped by a second pulse Friday helping bring more moderate sized surf to the region through the start of the weekend.  In addition we should see some windswell picking up for a little combo.  Read more for details.

Get the live buoy forecast graph here – http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

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As Stefan pointed out in the comments of the last forecast… my update was pretty shitty on Thursday.  I apologize for that.  I’ll try to see if I can make a little more time as the fall season starts to take over.  Anyways lets get into the forecast.  Leftover SW (200-210) from the weekend is going to slowly ease through Tuesday.  The swell happened to show up right as we saw our first Santa Ana event of the season.  It was hot and the surf was solid with good conditions.  Monday conditions will hold with wave heights running waist to head high for standouts.  Tuesday surf continues to slowly back off, conditions are looking pretty good though.

Next up we’ve got tropical swell headed towards the region on Wednesday.  I’ll get into the details below, but it should help compliment the easing SW, and maintain at least some waist to head high surf at standouts.  The swell will only stick around through Thursday, but it will be enough to span the gap between swells for a day.  And by that I mean we’ve got more Southern hemi on the way late Wednesday into Thursday.

The new SSW (190-200) starts to creep in with 18 second periods Wednesday afternoon, building to a peak late Thursday/Friday.  The second overlapping pulse arrives Thursday night.  The combination of energy in the water should mean another moderate sized run of surf through the end of the week and through the weekend.  We should be seeing waist to head high waves for the exposed coast, with standouts more consistently in the chest to head high range with some overhead sets.  The swell mix is expected to settle into the weekend, but should continue running waist to head high+ at standouts.  Conditions are going to be shifting a little more onshore through the week.

The hot weather we’re currently experiencing should cool off some through the week as high pressure weakens and troughing starts to work down the coast.  Troughing is going to mean an increase in onshore flow later in the week.  It’s not looking strong, so conditions should till be surfable, if not fun still.  Another trough approaches over the weekend.  That’s going to bring increased onshore flow that could have a little more of an impact.  It’s still too early to tell, but it could mean some added combo windswell in the knee to chest high range.  Again still too early to call, but I’ll have more info for you on Thursday.

Tropical Overview

Looks like Southern California is going to be seeing another round of tropical swell Wednesday and Thursday.  It’s not looking nearly as good as the swell from Paine, but it could still be pretty fun.  The storm hasn’t been named yet (currently known as 18-E) but looks like it will be called TS Roslyn soon.  The models are showing the storm being a weaker one, with winds maxing out around 40 mph.  The saving grace is going to be its ideal northward trajectory.  It’s still too early to say exactly, but we’re looking at 3-4 feet of deepwater energy, and probably wave heights running waist to head high… in addition to the southern hemi in the water.  Not to shabby.  Unfortunately for Central California the swell will be mostly too steep.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The shift to a more autumn like weather pattern is going to continue to produce moderate sized swell it looks like for next week.

It’s not a lot to get excited about, but basically troughing in the Gulf of Alaska over the upcoming weekend.  Some of the same troughing that is going to mean more onshore texture and chatter on the surface next week.  It will likely produce some mixed energy in the waist to head high+, or a little bigger for Central California.  It’s still too early to tell.  Southern California is going to see mostly windswell creeping around Pt. Conception.  Current models are looking hopeful for knee to chest high+ surf, but we’ll have to wait and see.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The Southern Hemisphere isn’t quite ready to close up shop yet.  Looking further out there are still a few systems bouncing along the ice shelf this week.  The first one gets a decent NE trajectory on Tuesday.

About 36 hours out, the system moves NE generating 25-30 foot seas.  It’s still a smaller storm though, and it doesn’t hold together too much longer after that.  First look suggests that we’re going to see some new energy showing up on the 4th/5th.

It’s still pretty far out, but the models are showing a second storm taking a similar track passing south of Tahiti over the weekend.  It’s not a sure thing, especially since the models are so far out, but it could mean a second SSW (190-210) pulse arriving around the 7th.  The two overlapping swells are expected to bring waist to chest high+ surf, but we’ll have to wait and see how things play out first.

The next long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, September 29, 2016.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster

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  • Duke

    Steffan is such a kook and a hater. Dude is kook of the year.

  • http://stefanwrobel.com/ Stefan Wrobel

    Thanks for the shout-out and the improved report! Any idea what angle the Roslyn swell will be coming from?

  • Dookie

    LOL, Is this guy serious? Roslyn has a Trump for president angle going…