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Breezy wind swell through the end of the week

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Austin Gendron
by
(Wednesday) 2.20.19

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

We’re looking at a ramp up in W-NW wind swell over the next 24 hours associated with the passing storm.  The increased surf should hold some size through Friday morning before backing off into the weekend.  Not a whole lot else on the schedule for the next week.  Small background swell from the southern hemisphere and some weak wind swell early next week.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

The very cold system blowing through Wednesday night could continue to threaten some rain Thursday, and cold over night temperatures the next couple of nights.  The W-NW winds following the front though are looking to be quite breezy.  The outer waters are expected to see 15 to 25 knot winds, with gusts up to 35 knots.  That’s expected to drum up local wind swell in the 5 to 8 foot range.

The stormy mix of swell should mean waist to head high+ wind waves along the exposed coast, possibly bigger, but it’s going to be pretty mixed up for most places, especially early Thursday.  The winds could start to shift more northerly though late Thursday and possibly even lighter by Friday morning as the swell starts to subside, revealing more promising looking surf.

Looking out through the weekend we’re going to see a fairly stale quiet period.  Daytime temps could warm up a bit, and we could see some small southern hemi filling in, and a little background energy from the WNW-NW, but only about enough to kick up some knee to waist high+ surf at the best standouts.  through the first half of next week.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Wednesday the 20th Stormy weather moves through the region and starts kicking up breezy W-NW winds. Wind swell builds late in the day.

Thursday the 21st winds are expected to be onshore and breezy.  Surf will be mostly short period wind swell kicked up by the storm.  Wave heights expected to peak in the afternoon around waist to head high+ along the exposed coast, possibly bigger.  Conditions could be a little tricky through the day, but possibly improving late.  Rain showers could continue.

Friday the 22nd weather starts trending better, with leftover swell, and more northerly winds could mean surfable conditions…

Saturday the 23rd lighter conditions and smaller leftovers

Sunday the 24th Weather continues to be a little nicer, but surf remains small in the ankle to waist high range.

Monday the 25th there could be some small background energy in the water but most of southern California will be in the ankle to knee high+ range.

Tuesday the 26th small swell mix with light conditions continue.

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long range models (which were down for a period of time and recently returned to action… or at least the GFS did) show a slow down through early next week.  About 126 hours out though we could see another more active pattern developing around the dateline and pushing east.

It’s still a bit far out, but this storm is looking pretty strong, with WW3 models suggesting seas upwards of 45-50 feet a few thousand miles WNW-NW of Southern California.  The storm looks strong enough to generate some long-period swell, with 20-22 second forerunners that would arrive late next Thursday.  Swell would likely build and peak late next week into the following weekend.  Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Mostly quiet for now

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster

http://www.solspot.com/

  • Elyah Doryon

    whats the story on you long range forecasts? i used to look towards it but you guys have lost consistency.