Breezy winds Thursday and new swell could mean a fun end to the week

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 4.12.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

The mix of medium period WNW and WNW-NW wind swell should build to a peak late Thursday/early Friday, with conditions expected to improve for Friday morning.  Swell eases through the weekend.  Another storm approaches CA for early next week, bringing with it a pulse of long-period WNW and another round of WNW-NW wind swell.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

The 10 to 12 second WNW swell that picked up Thursday will be joined by wind swell and breezy westerly winds on Thursday.

Wave heights are expected to build into the waist high to head high+ range, and possibly bigger by Thursday evening.

Thursday night, longer-period WNW-NW (285-300) shows up, and the swell mix will build into the 5 to 8 foot range holding through Friday morning.  For most average exposed spots, surf will be running chest to head high, but some standouts could see some consistency in the chest to overhead+ range, with some bigger sets even.  Conditions are supposed to improve for Friday morning as well, making for some potentially fun surf.  The swell mix will ease through the weekend, with smaller knee to chest high surf at standouts.

As we look out further towards next week, the next swell is already setting up in the North Pacific. This late season storm is looking pretty powerful, with winds stronger than 50 knots over the fetch. WW3 models are showing 35-40+ foot seas, with a decent trajectory pushing most of the long-period energy towards California. The storm is going to weaken as it passes north of Hawaii, but still continue east towards California. The 19 to 20 second swell is expected to arrive Sunday night.  That’s right around the same time the parent storm arrives along the California coast. The result is going to be a moderate sized pulse of W-WNW (280-300) swell, and breezy WNW-NW winds to accompany the swell through at least Monday adding additional short-period wind swell on top. The swell mix could calm a bit Tuesday, but another storm could approach next Wednesday/Thursday, bringing more westerly swell and onshore winds.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 12th breezy onshore winds producing chest to overhead+ surf, possibly bigger at top exposures.  Conditions not looking very good for most areas.

Friday the 13th W-WNW-NW swell mix continues to bring solid surf, could be looking at better conditions as the storm moves inland.

Saturday the 14th easing westerly swell mix could bring knee to chest high+ surf to standouts.

Sunday the 15th Swell mix expected to ease in the knee to waist high+ range.  Size could increase later in the day with onshore winds starting to pick up as well

Monday the 9th WNW-NW swell mix builds with breeZy onshore winds.   Surf should be running waist to head high+ along at standouts.

Tuesday the 10th WNW-NW swell mix should mean waist to head high+ surf at standouts.  Potential for better conditions

Wednesday the 11th Surf is expected to ease, but keeping an eye on approaching storm energy for mid to late next week.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The spring like conditions with onshores and mixed WNW-NW swell continue through the second half of next week based on the current models. It’s looking like a follow up storm is due mid week that could generate some localized W-WNW (270-300) swell energy for the California Coast.

As usual it’s still too early to call, but it could mean another moderate to maybe plus sized swell mix for the second half of next week.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Keeping an eye on new southerly swell due for the end of next week and the following weekend.  Still too early to call, but will have new updates early next week.  Stay tuned.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 16th.  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster