Combo swell eases through the week, with more next weekend

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Austin Gendron
(Tuesday) 10.30.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Santa Ana’s are expected to pick up adn continue through Thursday, that’s going to mean warm weather through the remainder of the week.  Surfwise we’re going to see the current combo swell ease through the end of the work week.  Small background energy expected through the first half of the weekend.  Sunday into Monday we’re expecting a new smaller but likely still fun mix of WNW-NW and SSW (190-205).  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise, the fun mix of waist to head high+ surf we’ve been experiencing up and down the coast the past few days is expected to start backing off as the combination of WNW-NW energy and SSW ease.

Wave heights will back off into the knee to chest high range likely late Wednesday into Thursday morning, then dropping as low as ankle to waist high at standouts Saturday.  Despite the dropping surf, conditions could still be fun for a few areas, although breezy offshores could make it tough to catch the weaker waves.

A few select spots could see some small WNW-NW (295-310) from a low that recent kicked up some swell near the dateline…

Current projections are for the swell to only reach about 3 feet at the Harvest Buoy, with periods around 14 to 15 seconds, so don’t expect much more than knee to waist high+ waves at the best spots.

We’re looking at potentially another pulse of SSW-SW arriving late in the weekend, mixing with another medium period WNW-NW pulse working its way around Pt. Conception.  The swells are both looking smaller than what is currently in the water, but the combo should help kick up some fun surf in the knee to chest high+ range for early next week at standouts.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Wednesday the 31st Happy Halloween! Surf starts to relax a little bit with mostly waist to chest high+ waves at standouts.  Winds are supposed to be offshore

Thursday the 1st continued nice weather, with SSW and WNW-NW continuing to ease.  Wave heights likely to be knee to chest high

Friday the 2nd There could be a little extra long-period WNW-NW in the water but for the most part knee to waist high+ surf at standouts.

Saturday the 3rd the swell mix backs off more for most places, with ankle to waist high surf.  Cooler weather.

Sunday the 4th new SSW and WNW-NW energy start to fill in, and wave heights could build into the knee to waist high+ range, possibly a little bigger.

Monday the 5th combo swell could be running knee to chest high+ at standouts.

Tuesday the 6th the combo swell mix could start to relax a little bit, with surf holding in the knee to chest high range or a little smaller

Tropical Overview

The tropical forecast keeps threatening another named storm… which would be the 25th of the season “Xavier”.

These are quite a bit more unpredictable this late in the season so it’s hard to make a solid prediction.  As of right now the best chance to see a storm forming is 50% a several hundred miles SW of the Central Coast of Mexico.  It’s still a few days out.  If it warrants a follow up I’ll let you know.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The North Pacific is setting up a pattern that isn’t great for producing decent swell for Southern California.  High pressure off the West Coast is going to push the storm track into the Gulf of Alaska instead of south into the swell window.

Hopefully in our next forecast there will be some more mentionable activity to report on.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The Southern Hemisphere doesn’t appear to be quite ready to shut down for the winter (or summer… depending on how you look at it).  There’s one area of low pressure expected to brew in a few days south of Easter Island.

It’s too early to say how big of a swell it would be, but it has a pretty good chance of sending some fun small to moderate sized straight south swell (~180).  That swell would likely arrive around the 9th or 10th of November.

There’s also another system closer to Australia/Tasmania, that could end up sending some inconsistent SW (220-230) energy for around the 13th.  It’s still a bit too early to call either of those swells, so stay tuned for updates.

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster