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Fabio is in the limelight this week

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Austin Gendron
by
(Tuesday) 7.3.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Happy 4th of July! Small to moderate mix of weak tropical energy and S-SSW will help maintain some knee to chest high waves through the holiday.  Most of the attention this week is going to be on Thursday and Friday as Fabio S-SSE swell builds and peaks, bringing some solid moderate sized surf to the regions standouts.  The swell will ease and blend into smaller southern hemi pulses early next week.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise fun knee to chest high surf continues through Wednesday.  The excitement starts Thursday as Fabio swell starts to fill in early in the morning.  Fabio turned out to be a pretty solid storm, and should be able to send a few forerunners that could creep in from a steep SSE (160-170) around night fall Wednesday, but the majority of the swell is going to fill in early Thursday, building through the day, peaking late afternoon/through the evening.

With Fabio (not sure anyone could resist the cliche man shot) still currently holding Cat 2 status, and being well within the window, its not really much of a surprise that this is going to be a fairly consistent and solid tropical pulse.  Wave heights are going to peak with wave heights in the chest to overhead+ range at average to standout spots, standouts and magnets are expected to be seeing larger surf likely in the head high to potentially well overhead range.  Surf is expected to hold some solid size through Friday morning but will ease through the start of the weekend.  All in all it’s likely to be a fairly hectic couple of days with the holiday, impending warm weather, and best swell to come through in quite a while… My recommendation is if you can get out early enough with the lighter winds and thinner crowds you should be better off.

There could be a little wind swell picking up late Friday through Saturday morning as well, adding a little combo to the lingering energy.

We’re expecting lighter variable/offshore morning winds through the end of the work week.  The afternoon onshore trend is supposed to ramp up a bit according to the models, but with impending high pressure that is likely to heat things up through the end of the week, its possible that the winds could shut down with warm muggy air at the coast.  Hard to call, and there’s a chance that a surge of monsoonal moisture could add a bit more uncertainty to the mix through the weekend… all the more reason for everyone and their mom to descend on your local spot to seek relief…

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Wednesday the 4th SSW swell mix bottoms out in the knee to waist high+ range.  Potential for new energy from Fabio arriving late.

Thursday the 5th Tropical swell from Fabio arrives early in the morning, potentially bringing waist to head high+ surf by late morning.  Wave heights are expected to build into the head high to well overhead range at standouts and magnets late in the day as the swell peaks.

Friday the 6th Potential for chest to overhead+ surf if Fabio holds a peak through the morning.  wave heights will start to ease through the day.  keeping an eye on some small wind swell possibly late, although it looks like hot weather may keep the NW winds along the coast at bay

Saturday the 7th Fabio leftovers blend in with small S-SSW in the water.  Wave heights expected to be running knee to chest high

Sunday the 8th southern hemi mix helps maintain knee to waist high+ surf

Monday the 9th a little extra SSW should help bring knee to chest high waves to the region’s standouts.

Tuesday the 10th southerly swell mix maintains knee to chest high surf.

Tropical Overview

NHC is showing a slow and steady decline for Fabio… That could mean the swell lingers a little longer into the weekend, but doubt it will be enough to keep the swell as exciting as Thursday and Friday.

The main point is, it could linger into the weekend further… we’ll have to wait and see.  Nothing else on the forecast though from the tropics.  Stay tuned.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast is looking quieter for the time being

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range forecast continues the trend of small to moderate sized pulses of southern hemi swell.

From the looks of it we’ve got a couple more pulses arriving around the 9th/10th from the S/SSW (180-190).  The next pulse should be a smaller SSW-SW (210-220) due around the 13-14th.  Not expecting much more than knee to chest high+ surf from either of these, but we’ll see.  Stay tuned.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/