First actual NW swells arrive just in time for the long weekend

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Austin Gendron
(Tuesday) 11.20.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Smaller surf through continues through the end of the work week (assuming Wednesday is your last day of work).  Then per what I’d like to say is usual, we’ve got an uptick in short to medium period WNW-NW (300+).  Swell will slowly build Thanksgiving Day.  It’s a little steep, but should be able to swing some autumn swell in to the exposed west facing breaks Friday as the swell peaks.  The mix of energy will ease through the weekend.  We’re also expecting a little southern hemi background swell through the weekend as well.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise, the current mix of small SSW swell is bringing knee to waist high surf to standouts.  Conditions are a little textured with onshores in the afternoon, but overall still surfable.  Wednesday is looking like it could start off a little light, with cleaner conditions for some areas, but southerly onshores are expected to pick up and gust in the afternoon.  A system swinging through the region is going to be the cause for the increased onshore winds that will last through Thursday.  It’s possible that there could be some rain accompanying this one as well…but more importantly the first mentionable NW swell of the season.

Thursday afternoon while most people are stuffing themselves, there will be some new NW swell filling in.  Wave heights are expected to be on the smaller side through most of the day, possibly reaching waist to chest high+ in the evening after dark for the Northern Counties.  Friday morning the swell mix is supposed to peak, and with better conditions as the winds ease.  Wave heights could be running chest to head high at standouts with bigger sets possible at top exposures.  Conditions look cleanest in the morning, but westerly winds could pick up in the afternoon.

The swell mix will ease through the weekend, giving way to a small SSW (195-205) mix that will keep knee to waist high+ surf in the water through the start of next week.  Larger NW swell due to follow mid-next week.  Read more bellow.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Wednesday the 12st southerly swell mix brings knee to waist high+ waves at standouts.  Keeping an eye on increased onshores and potential for rain.

Thursday the 22nd possibly wet weather and onshore winds as WNW-NW swell mix builds through the day, resulting in waist to chest high surf late in the day.

Friday the 23rd WNW-NW swell peaks, bringing waist to head high+ surf at standouts.  Onshore winds pick up in the afternoon.

Saturday the 24th The WNW-NW swell mix and some background SSW should continue to bring knee to chest high surf.

Sunday the 25th another S swell arrives, overlapping the previous one.  This should mean knee to waist high+ surf continues.

Monday the 26th SSW swell mix continues to bring knee to waist high+ surf.

Tuesday the 27th southern hemi swell continues to bring knee to waist high surf to standouts.  Potential for forerunners for the next NW swell to arrive.

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The long-range models are showing more solid swell due mid to late next week from the Northern Hemisphere as we start heading into the typically more consistent part of the season.

The first in a series of lows is expecte dto generate 35+ foot seas at is crosses the dateline.  It’s still a bit far north to have a great shot at Southern California, but at least opens up the gates for stronger systems to build on the disturbed sea state in the Central North Pacific.

A second stronger storm, capable of generating 35-40+ foot seas, takes a more southerly track on the weekend charts.  That one is expected to be a much better shot for Southern California.  The resulting swell will arrive on Wednesday, building on the first one, which is due to arrive on Tuesday.  These two swells combined could potentially bring some decent moderate to plus sized surf for the second half of next week, but it doesn’t end there.

There is expcted to be a third system that could strengthen a little over a thousand miles NW of Pt. Conception.  Despite being a bit north, this low is quite close and could end up generating another solid swell to build on the other two ahead of it.  It’s still too early to call for sure, but updates should be coming this weekend so stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The Southern Hemisphere is looking quieter, with only small background swells being spun off of a couple zonal systems bouncing along the melting ice shelf.  Nothing too exciting to report there.

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster