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Fun weekends surf with new southern hemi and WNW combo in the water

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Austin Gendron
by
(Wednesday) 4.19.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

I apologize for the break in the forecasts earlier this week.  I had a family emergency that kept me away from a computer for a few days…. anyways, a mix of WNW-NW (290-315) swell/windswell will peak late Thursday/Friday as new long-period SSW (190-200) fills in.  The mix should mean moderate sized surf for the regions standouts through the weekend.  Additional medium to long-period WNW (280-300) energy is due on Sunday helping continue the trend of surfable waves through the start of next week.  We’re also expecting new southern hemi to start building midweek.  Read more for details…..

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

So I’ve got good news, this uptick in surf is also going to be accompanied by some warm weather and semi decent conditions.  High pressure building over the region and sticking around through the weekend should mean lighter winds, with some areas likely seeing a little bit of an offshore gradient in the mornings and evenings.  Still a little onshore in the afternoons, but not too bad.  Pretty exciting considering we’re heading into a stretch of waist to head high surf for most of the region.

A storm that recently kicked up some fetch off the Northern California coast has sent a mix of WNW-NW (290-315) energy.  Some longer-period energy with a little added windswell on the surface will creep in, building wave heights into the waist to high+ range Thursday and Friday.  In addition we’re also expecting long-period S-SSW (190-200) to fill in with 19 to 20 second periods on Thursday, building to a 2′-3′ peak Saturday.  That means southerly exposures could also be seeing waist to head high surf as well.    The windswell/swell mix will ease some Saturday as the s.hemi swell peaks, but standouts and deepwater spots still have a chance at getting a few overhead-overhead+ sets occasionally when everything comes together.  With decent conditions being the cherry on top, it sounds like a pretty fun end of the week/start of the weekend.

 

The next pulse of NPac swell is going to come from a series of lows headed for the West Coast this weekend through mid-next week. High pressure is going to help keep them mostly to the north, and it looks like the fetch should be generating about 20+ foot seas a few hundred miles off the coast before the low loses strength and takes a more northward track. That’s going to mean its likely to generate another pulse of medium period swell that should be arriving by the end of the weekend.  It does look like the fetch has a little better aim at Socal because of its lower latitude, which should help focus a little more energy on the region.  As of right now we’re expecting the medium period WNW (280-300) swell to generate wave heights in the waist to head high+ range again.  The only thing about the first half of next week is that it is possible that we are going to see an increase in onshore flow as the ridge weakens and a trough of low pressure develops near the region.  So light onshore flow, and possibly a developing marine layer in the mornings. .

The increase in onshore winds next week could add some shorter-period energy early to mid-next week as well.  Then we’re also expecting another long period s.hemi pulse (this time from a more southerly angle (180-190)) to arrive on Tuesday.  It doesn’t look quite as big as this weekends swell, but should still add some combo energy to a few areas.  In some cases, those standouts and combo breaks could again be looking at set waves going head high to overhead+.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 19th waist to head high+ surf WNW-NW builds.  Conditions don’t look too bad, although could turn onshore a bit in the afternoon.

Friday the 20th new southern hemi starts to fill in as WNW-NW peaks. wave heights could be running waist to head high+, although it is possible for a few standouts to see bigger sets.  Conditions look mostly favorable.

Saturday the 21st  wave heights hold in the waist to head high+ range, throughout the region.  Southern Hemi should be peaking as the WNW-NW starts to ease.

Sunday the 22nd WNW lingers through the start of the day as southern hemi holds.  Wave heights should be in the waist to head high range at standouts.

Monday the 23rd westerly swell mix increases again blending with leftover southern hemi.  Wave heights are expected to be running waist to head high, with potential for bigger sets at standouts.  Conditions start to turn a little more onshore.

Tuesday the 24th WNW-NW swell/windswell mix is expected to build a little bit, mixing with overlapping southern hemi.  Overall surf should for the most part hold in the waist to head high+ range, although southerly exposures may be a little smaller, and westerly spots a little bigger.

Wednesday the 25th the trend of waist to head high surf is expected to continue.

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Only noteworthy swell for next week at this point is potential for short-period winds well coming from a trough developing over the interior, with high pressure over the NE Pac.

It’s too early to call the details. Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Looking out at the Southern Hemisphere models, it looks like the next potential southern hemisphere swell is going to be coming together in a few days, showing on the 66 hour models.

The initial storm track isn’t actually all that good for California. The storm pushes northward after passing south of New Zealand. This means the swell has to pass through the swell grater known as Tahiti and French Polynesian Archipelago.

the good news is that the storm track continues to hold some good shape sending swell N-NE as it shifts east into a more open part of the swell window. From the looks of it. The series of systems should help support each other by piling up a decent dosage of energy. From the current looks of it, we’ll be seeing the mix of energy arriving on the 29th, potentially improving through the first couple days of May. We’ll have to wait and see though… its still pretty far out. Stay tuned.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 24th of April. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/