Keeping an eye on Fabio for late next week

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Austin Gendron
(Saturday) 6.30.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Small wind swell trails off through the weekend as we continue to see playful surf from a small mix of SSW-SW (200-210) that will be building to a peak Sunday.  Small swell remnants of TD Emilia are expected Monday to add a little S to the fading SSW.  Keeping an eye on bigger swell from yet to be named Fabio mid to late next week.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise fun knee to chest high+ surf today is expected to get an extra little increase tomorrow as the building SSW peaks.  As that energy starts to wane Monday and Tuesday there could be some weak southerly energy in the water from TD Emilia.  Not expecting much, but enough to help maintain knee to chest high surf along the exposed coast.  Size will ease a little more Wednesday.

The 4th of July is looking a little small, but we could star to see some new tropical swell filling in late from Fabio.  Fabio could turn into a solid swell maker late Thursday and Friday, but its still too early to call, more details in the tropical outlook.  If Fabio doesn’t materialize, which is very possible, there will be some smaller SW (215-225) helping keep playful knee to chest high surf in the water at standouts.  We could also be seeing an increase in windswell Friday, associated with an increasing thermal gradient as high pressure builds over the American Southwest.

Conditionwise here’s a little bit of texture on the surface at southerly exposures thanks to some onshore winds.  The trend will be light S-SE winds in the mornings through the weekend, with more of a westerly gradient in the afternoons.  Monday the winds will lighten up but remain onshore for the most part strengthening in the afternoon.  The southerly onshores in the morning are expected to return again Tuesday and more so on Wednesday.  Keeping an eye on more offshore trend for Thursday, and possibly stronger NW winds Friday into early next weekend.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Saturday the 30th SSW swell starts building again, could mean knee to chest high+ surf at standouts late.

Sunday the 1st SSW could bring some bigger waves in the waist to head high range

Monday the 2nd southern hemi mix settles, with a little tropical energy from Emilia.  Wave heights expected to be running knee to chest high+.

Tuesday the 3rd southerly swell mix eases into the knee to chest high range.

Wednesday the 4th SSW swell mix bottoms out in the knee to waist high+ range.  Potential for new energy from Fabio arriving late.

Thursday the 5th keeping eye on tropical swell from Fabio, potentially bringing waist to head high surf late.  Otherwise knee to chest high SW expected to build through the day.

Friday the 6th Potential for chest to overhead+ surf if Fabio materializes.  Otherwise knee to chest high or a bit bigger as SW peaks and smaller Fabio energy fills in.  Also keeping an eye on NW winds and wind swell building

Tropical Overview

Emilia didn’t really amount to anything, not too much of a surprise though as its still pretty early in the season for high pressure to the north to start pulling tropical systems upwards.  The next storm in line though has potential to take advantage of warming water temperatures and strengthen as it it works on a WNW-NW track.

It is expected to take a few days before the storm is strong enough to produce swell, and the models are in a bit of a disagreement about the strength and track of the system, so its still up in the air.  If the GFS is right though, the strengthening high pressure over the American Southwest is going to pull the system somewhat northwest, and it could develop into a fairly strong storm.

The storm could produce 30 foot seas if everything goes as planned, sending some at first steep SSE (160-165) energy late Wednesday into Thursday, building more Thursday as the energy swings towards 170-175 degrees, and moves more into the Socal swell window.  It is possible that we could be seeing chest to overhead+ surf or even a little bigger next Friday into the start of the weekend.  That is a best case scenario though, and not nearly as likely as adding some chest to head high sets to the already present knee to chest high SW in the water.  We’ll have to wait and see though.  Stay tuned.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast is looking quieter for the time being

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range forecast continues to show promise for the second week of July, although them models are not looking quite as strong as they did.

The short of it is that the swell we were expecting for the 8th/9th will be downgraded, and pushed back to the 10th-ish.  I’ll have more details in the next forecast.

“I spend my life constantly calling in ‘imaginary’ debts that aren’t owed to me in order to avoid the ‘real’ debts that I owe to others, and so everybody ends up bankrupt.” 
― Craig D. Lounsbrough

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster

  • Tom

    I really enjoy your forecasts! Thank you!!!