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Lingering S swell and new SSW help keep fun surf in the water for standouts

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Austin Gendron
by
(Thursday) 8.17.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

The S (170-180) swell that recently filled in is producing some fun sized surf for southerly exposures right now.  It should be starting to back off more Thursday as new SSW (195-205) shows up to help maintain small to moderate sized surf through the weekend.  My recommendation is take advantage while you can because the first half of next week the surf is going to be on the decline.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

The long-period S-SSE that filled in over the past couple of days is holding on through Thursday, bringing slightly m ore consistent surf to exposed spots.  Wave heights are typically running knee to chest high, but standouts and magnets are seeing set waves going shoulder-head high+ even slightly overhead for a few spots.  The swell should start to ease this afternoon as new SSW starts filling in.

The new pulse of SSW (195-205) is supposed to steadily build through Friday, finally peaking on Saturday with around 3 feet of deepwater swell.  That should mean a slight shift in the swell angle more to the west, but also the combination should mean wave heights generally holding in the waist to head high range.  In some cases that could mean set waves going head high+-overhead high.  Wave heights look like they will linger Sunday through the start of next week, but there just isn’t much to follow it up, at least in the near term.

As far as conditions go… not much change day to day.  Morning winds are looking light and variable, while afternoon onshore breezes are going to add some texture and bump for exposed W-SW facing beaches.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 17th knee to chest high+ surf at standout southerly exposures

Friday the 18th, southerly swell mix holds with knee to chest high waves at standouts, possibly bigger as new SSW fills in.

Saturday the 19th new SSW peaks, possibly bringing waist to head high+ surf to standouts.

Sunday the 20th surf starts to ease as SSW begins backing off.

Monday the 21st SSW swell eases more, with standouts running knee to chest high

Tuesday the 22nd knee to waist high+ surf as southern hemi swell eases

Wednesday the 23rd weaker southern hemi energy in the water for mostly minimal surf.

Tropical Overview

There’s currently an area of low pressure about 600 miles SSW of Manzanillo, MX. NHC is giving it a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, and a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. The global models though continue to show an unlikely chance that it will become organized enough to be a tropical cyclone, so I’ll keep monitoring and get back to you.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Keeping an eye on the long-range forecast models, upper level patterns are starting to shift a little bit.  No swell makers yet, but worth keeping an eye on things.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

We’re still dealing with a slow southern hemisphere storm pattern. The only blip on the radar right now shows up about 72 hours out, and is questionable at best.

The storm I’ve been following the past few days south of the Pitcairns looks like it could swing in a little northerly directed fetch behind the main fetch over the weekend. This is new on the models, and it’s looking questionable. The global models are showing the fetch generating 25-30 foot seas for a brief period of time on Sunday, before the storm quickly moves east towards Chile. It should mean possibly some new S (180-190) around the 26th. I’ll have more info on Monday.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 21st of August. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/