NW wind swell builds over SSW leftovers to end the week

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 10.19.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

SSW (195-205) swell will continue to ease through Friday as a mix of WNW-NW wind swell/swell build.  The NW swell mix is showing as mostly wind swell, but a solid storm in the Gulf of Alaska should also send some long-period energy down the coast as well.  Surf is due to peak Saturday morning, before relaxing through the remainder of the weekend.  New S-SSW (180-190) arrives Sunday and will build to a small to moderate peak Monday/Tuesday.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise we’re expecting southerly spots to see a bit of a drop (knee to chest high) on Friday, although W-NW exposures are going to see an increase as the new wind swell/swell from the NW builds.  The long-period swell energy looks a little steep, but the storm that was recently off the Oregon/Washington coast was close in proximity, so we’re expecting to at least see some surf from it.

We’re anticipating more wind swell from the NW gradient associated with the passing front.  The outer waters could see winds upwards of 20-30+ knots, enough to generate some sizable wind swell in the 5 to 8 foot range.

I’m still not a hundred percent on this, but I’d say get out early Saturday to beat the winds, and look for westerly exposures.  Wave heights are expected to be running waist to head high for most exposures, but a few standouts could be seeing some better sets, especially if they have can work the combo of leftover southerly swell into the mix.

As the NW energy starts to ease through the end of the weekend, southerly exposures are expected to see a new small to moderate sized S (175-185) fill in.  Swell arrives Sunday and will build to a peak Monday.  Standouts could be running waist to head high.  Note that conditions are expected to turn more offshore following Friday’s storm, so it could be pretty fun through the end of the weekend and first half of next week.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 19th southerly exposures start to see size easing into the waist to head high range as a little bit of wind swell could start to join the mix.

Friday the 20th, NW energy is supposed to fill in through the day, potentially bringing waist to head high+ surf to westerly exposures.  Southerly facing spots will be on the decline

Saturday the 21st W-NW exposures have potential to be running knee to chest high+.  South facing breaks expected to be on the smaller side

Sunday the 22nd New S swell starts filling in as NW energy eases.  Standouts expected to be running knee to chest high+.

Monday the 23rd S swell is expected to build to a peak.  Wave heights expected to be waist to head high+ at standouts

Tuesday the 24th Surf at southerly exposures continues to bring fun waist to head high surf

Wednesday the 25th surf expected to ease.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long range models are showing Typhoon Lan moving up the coast of Japan early next week, merging with cooler arctic air near the Aleutians midweek. The result could be a very strong low generating a large fetch of 50-60 knot winds.

That translates to about 40-45+ foot seas aimed at the West Coast. The angle doesn’t look all that great at the moment, and there’s likely to be some energy loss due to the orientation with the Aleutians. Despite those two factors, we can expect to see another potentially solid round of long-period deepwater swell arriving for next weekend. Still a bit too early to call, but I’ll keep an eye on it and have more for you on Monday.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The long-range models for the Southern Hemisphere are looking a little quieter today.  There will still be some smaller inconsistent background swell arriving from the SW (210-220) mid-next week, but otherwise not a whole lot of noteworthy activity down south.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 23rd. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster