Offshore winds and small swells. Keep an eye on the weekend

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 12.4.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

NW energy lingers through the start of the week as some small background swell from the SSW (190-205) fills in.  Strong offshores expected Tuesday.  Then some steeper NW energy due midweek, followed by better WNW swells this upcoming weekend.

Just a heads up.  I’ll be out of town until the 18th, and won’t be updating the forecast.  Adam may step in if he can, but not 100% sure.  Focus on the models and watch the westerly swells for next week.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Monday we’re expecting some small but playful SSW (190-200) to start building. It should peak Tuesday/Wednesday with around 2 feet of deepwater swell.  That equates to around knee to chest high+ surf at standouts.  Should be pretty fun for standouts southerly exposures.  There will also be some lingering energy from the North Pacific, but not enough to generate much surf.

Strong offshore winds are expected Tuesday, subsiding a little through the second half of the week but we’re still looking at warm daytime temperatures in the 70′s and 80′s along the coast.  For the small surf that we have in the water through the week it should mean decent conditions.

Wednesday/Thursday we’re expecting another small round of steeper NW (300-310) that could generate a few extra waist to chest high waves at standout westerly exposures.  More swell due over the weekend, and it looks like it should have a bit better angle on it.

Friday/Saturday we’re looking at more WNW-NW (285-300). This time from a slightly better angled system that is supposed to dive a bit south as it passes north of Hawaii.  Because of the better angle for Socal, it’s possible that the surf could increase Saturday into the waist to head high range along the exposed coast, with standouts Sunday in the chest to overhead range.  It’s still a little too early too call, but worth keeping an eye on.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 4th SSW swell starts building.  Could bring knee to chest high sets to standouts by the end of the day.

Tuesday the 5th SSW peaks with standouts running knee to chest high+

Wednesday the 6th Surf is expected to hold at southerly exposures.

Thursday the 7th Another round of NW energy could mean knee to chest high+ surf at standouts.

Friday the 8th, Surf expected to linger.  New WNW starts building late in the day.

Saturday the 9th New long-period WNW swell fills in could bring knee to chest high+ possibly head high surf to standouts.

Sunday the 10th keeping an eye on potential for WNW energy to peak in the waist to head high+ range at westerly exposures.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The long-range models are showing a shift in the jet stream pattern through the Central North Pacific.

We’ve still got a blocking high, but a couple of better angled storms are going to kick up some more swell for next week. The first pulse is likely due to arrive late next Monday/Tuesday.

The second system looks super impressive actually. It’s way too early to call, but keep an eye on the models because if this one ends up living up to its current projections, it could mean a large W-WNW (270-290) swell for Central and Southern California mid to late next week.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Minimal swell coming out of the South Pacific at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 18th.  I’ll be in Costa Rica until then…

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster