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Orlene swell eases into the weekend, blending with background energy from the SW

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Austin Gendron
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(Thursday) 9.15.16

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

SURF TRIP GIVEAWAY…..details in surf forecast! SSW-SW (200-210) eases slowly through midweek, but wont drop off a whole lot with a little extra SSW helping its decline.  Wednesday we’re expecting a fun tropical swell from TS Orlene (likely hurricane by the time you read this).  Could mean some moderate sized surf through the second half of the week.  A little SW and NW energy in the background will creep in as well.  Read more for details.

Get the live buoy forecast graph here – http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

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We’re mostly looking at swell from Hurricane Orlene holding its peak through the morning before gradually backing off through the end of the work week.  Standouts will likely see waist to head high surf dropping into the knee to waist high+ range by the start of the weekend.

Wave heights wont back off too much more than that though as a steady run of small background swell from the S (~180)/SW (220-230) maintains a combined 2 feet of deepwater swell.  There will also be some long-period NW (300+) arriving Monday adding a little combo swell to the mix.  Some standout combo breaks, or well exposed W-NW exposures could see some knee to chest high waves early to mid-next week.  As far as conditions go, mostly light onshore winds in the mornings, with a breezier texture on the surface in the afternoons.  Otherwise fairly nice weather with overnight marine layer and clouds each morning.

Tropical Overview

TS Orlene is currently located several hundred miles WSW of Cabo.  The system has peaked and is now on a mostly westward track towards Hawaii as it loses strength.  That’s going to mean not much more than minimal traces of swell through the weekend.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The long-range forecast models aren’t showing anything all that fantastic at the  moment, but they are showing a pattern that could very well be the start of something pretty awesome.

Warm moist air tracking through the mid latitudes, and low pressure dropping out of the Bering Sea mid next week could end up brewing into a swell maker in the Gulf of Alaska mid to late next week.  Still too early to call, but I’ll have updates for you on Monday.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Continuing to track the storm that should be sending some SSW (190-210) for the 23rd (possibly starting to show on the 22nd).

The storms continues to look zonal, and although it was looking like it might get a little nudge to the NE through the end of the week when it reaches peak strength, the models have shifted to a more conservative route and look like they are going to keep it closer to the ice.  Not the best news for us, but it’s strength should still be enough to send some small to moderate sized surf to standouts for the end of next week.  Doesn’t look like the Southern Hemisphere is quite ready to give up though.

The medium-long range models are showing another low south of the Pitcairn Islands.  This time taking a better track northward.  It’s not as strong, but will be able to direct more swell our direction for the last few days of the month.

The extreme long-range models show a copy cat system potentially sending an even better pulse for a couple days after that.  Waaaayyyy too early to call, but I’ll have updates for you early next week. Stay tuned.

The next long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 19, 2016.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/

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