Overlapping S.hemi continues to bring small but playful surf through the week.

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 8.14.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

There’s some small long period SSW (200-215) that should be peaking late Monday/Tuesday.  Wednesday a steeper S (170-180) swell arrives helping add a little combo energy and possibly a couple bigger sets to standout southerly facing exposures.  In addition Thursday/Friday another SSW (195-205) shows up.  This one could help bump the surf up into the small-moderate size range heading into the weekend.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

The SSW (200-215) currently in the water is expected to peak Tuesday with around 2 feet of deepwater swell, blending with long-period S-SSE that should be filling in as well.  Late Tuesday/Early Wednesday look like they will see the biggest waves heights of the work week.  Conditions are looking a little lighter as well thanks to high pressure building and helping ease up the onshore gradient earlier in the day.  So basically less texture in the mornings.

Wave heights at the moment are running knee to waist high+ at standouts, and we should see a little more consistency and size Tuesday and Wednesday morning.  It’s likely that standouts will be seeing waist to chest high+ waves.  Wednesday new long-period S-SSE will fill in as well.  It looks a little more inconsistent, but could result in combo spots seeing peaky waves with a little extra size.  Things really start to pick up towards the end of the week though.  A new pulse of SSW (195-205) is supposed to arrive on Thursday and steadily build through Friday, finally peaking on Saturday with around 3 feet of deepwater swell.  In some cases that could mean set waves going head high-head high+.  For most southerly exposures not shadowed by the Islands, we’re looking at waist to chest high+ surf.  Size should start to ease on Sunday.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 14th SSW swell builds, potentially bringing knee to chest high waves through the day at standouts

Tuesday the 15th knee to chest high surf for the exposed coast with bigger sets at standouts and magnets.

Wednesday the 16th potential for waist to chest high+ sets at standouts as new S-SSE fills in.

Thursday the 17th knee to chest high+ surf at standout southerly exposures

Friday the 18th, southerly swell mix holds with knee to chest high waves at standouts, possibly bigger as new SSW fills in.

Saturday the 19th new SSW peaks, possibly bringing waist to head high+ surf to standouts.

Sunday the 20th surf starts to ease as SSW begins backing off.

Tropical Overview

Not much showing in the tropics right now.  Long-range models show two areas of low pressure located a ways west of Central Mexico.  Respectively the two lows have a 40% chance and 30% chance of a storm forming the next 5 days south of Cabo.  Global models continue to show an unlikely chance that either of these will become a tropical cyclone, so I’ll keep monitoring and get back to you.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Keeping an eye on the long-range forecast models, upper level patterns are starting to shift a little bit.  No swell makers yet, but worth keeping an eye on things.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The Southern Hemisphere has been kind of sucking this summer. It’s amazing how quiet it has been, and continues to be.

As of right now the only notable swell makers… just aren’t very notable. The area south of the Pitcairns and Easter Island looks a little active next weekend (that’s the first notable thing in the forecast). Unfortunately, there are 3 systems, and only one (the weakest) is aimed in the right direction. From the looks of it we might see some very small southerly swell arriving around the end of the month, but I wouldn’t get too excited about it. Stay tuned hopefully I have some better news in my next forecast.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 17th of August. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster