Overlapping SSW swells keep surfable waves in the water this weekend and early next week

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 8.10.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Small surf to moderate surf for standouts through the end of the week as a pulse of long period SSW (190-200) fills in and peaks on Friday.  Size will linger through the weekend mixing with some small wind swell.  New long period SSW (200-215) fills in late Sunday and will peak Monday/Tuesday bringing some slightly bigger and more consistent energy for the start of next week.  We’re also expecting some steeper S (170-180) swell arriving mid-next that has potential to pick things up a little more.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise there really isn’t much going on through the weekend.  The background SSW could produce some waist to chest high+ late Thursday/Friday/Saturday morning at standouts, but otherwise most summer exposures are going to continue to mostly see knee to waist high waves.

The swell should ease a little bit through the weekend, but for most standouts remain surfable.  Late Sunday an overlapping pulse of SSW (200-215) arrives and will build through Monday, peaking Tuesday with around 2 feet of deepwater swell.  That should translate into knee to chest high waves for most standout southerly exposures, with a few magnets seeing more consistently waist to chest high+ with some head high sets.  Wednesday new long-period S-SSE will fill in as well.  It looks a little more inconsistent, but could result in combo spots seeing peaky waves with a little extra size.  We’ll have to wait and see how that plays out though.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 10th knee to chest high surf at standout southerly exposures

Friday the 11th, southerly swell mix holds with knee to chest high waves at standouts, possibly bigger.

Saturday the 12th wave heights start to ease a little with standouts running knee to waist high+, more averages spots in the ankle to waist high range.

Sunday the 13th surf continues holds in the knee to waist high+ range at standouts as new SSW energy arrives.

Monday the 14th SSW swell builds, potentially bringing knee to chest high waves through the day at standouts

Tuesday the 15th knee to chest high surf for the exposed coast with bigger sets at standouts and magnets.

Wednesday the 16th potential for waist to head high+ sets at standouts as new S-SSE fills in.

Tropical Overview

Not much showing in the tropics right now. Long-range models show a 30% chance of a storm forming the next 5 days south of Cabo. There’s another area of low pressure being watched off the southern coast of Mexico. It has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. Global models don’t give it much of a chance though. I’ll keep an eye on it and report more on Monday.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Low pressure still expected to approach early next week, but doesn’t look like its going to do much more than being a few extra clouds and cooler temperatures to the region.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Still watching to see what happens with this low that’s supposed to pass below Tahiti and move NE over the next couple of days. Models continue to show it being on the weaker side, but strengthening again in the mid latitudes with a mostly N-NE trajectory when it nears the Pitcairn Islands.

As of right now it’s looking like it should at least produce some fun playful surf. The storm is supposed to produce 25-30 foot seas, and come within about 5000 miles of California. Not great, but with the decent trajectory and angle of the swell we could be at least looking at some waist to chest high+ surf at exposures that like the SSW (190-200) swell angle. The swell is expected to arrive around the 17th/18th, but it’s still too early to call, but I will follow up early next week. Stay tuned.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 14th of August. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster