playful surf with good conditions through the week

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Austin Gendron
(Tuesday) 10.16.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Monday’s offshore event is supposed to settle a bit through the remainder of the week, but we’re still expecting offshores and warm weather to continue, followed by another Santa Ana event possibly over the weekend.  Swellwise, the small blend of SSW-SW (200-215) is going to continue through the reminder of the week, lingering through the weekend.  We should be seeing some small WNW-NW (295-310) energy making its way around Point Conception Friday as well for a little extra combo energy.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise, the fun mix of knee to chest high+ surf along the exposed southerly coast is going to continue as southern hemi in the water slowly fades.  A couple smaller overlapping SSW pulses should help maintain surfable size at least through the end of the week.

Later in the week we’re expecting a little bit of WNW-NW (295-310) swell to start filling in with longer periods.  It’s not a big pulse though.  Current forecast models are showing 5 to 7 feet of deep water swell could peak at the Harvest buoy Friday morning, but with the angle being a little steeper and swell size not being all that big, only a fraction of that will work its way into Southern California beaches.  Standout exposures could be seeing some knee to chest high waves building Friday, before easing through the weekend.

We’re looking at potentially another pulse of SSW-SW arriving early next week that could help kick the surf at southerly exposures up again.  As of right now it could mean another round of knee to chest high+ surf for mid-next week.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Tuesday the 16th the SSW-SW mix continues to bring fun knee to chest high+ surf to the regions standout exposures, with smaller surf at more average spots.  Conditions look decent with lighter offshores than Monday.

Wednesday the 17th Surf starts to relax a little bit with mostly knee to chest high waves at standouts.

Thursday the 18th continued nice weather, with SSW swell getting a little extra energy to help maintain knee to chest high waves at standouts.  New WNW-NW starts filling in late.

Friday the 19th WNW-NW builds adding some combo energy to exposed combo spots.  Wave heights likely to be running knee to chest high, but with potential for head high sets at better combo spots.

Saturday the 20th the swell mix begins to relax a little more with knee to chest high waves at standouts, possibly smaller if the WNW-NW can’t filter in.

Sunday the 21st swell continues to ease into the knee to waist high+ range.

Monday the 22nd surf continues to slowly relax

Tropical Overview

No real tropical swell makers are looking promising at this time

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The long-range forecast is looking pretty quiet.  The storm that produced the swell due for the end of the week is hugging the Aleutians, and there isn’t a whole lot else in the forecast.

High pressure off the West Coast is going to be pushing most of the weak storm energy coming across the North Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska, which is fairly typical of this time of year.  Those storms then end up diving down through the CONUS (Continental United States) near the Great Basin and delivering Santa Ana style offshore events.  The one shown above doesn’t ramp up its swell making abilities until its already headed NE towards Canada, only sending minimal background swell towards Southern California.  The more exposed Central California coast could end up seeing some fun surf from that system still.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The southern hemisphere doesn’t appear to be quite done with the season.  We’ve got new swell showing up early next week.  That one could be a little inconsistent due to the origin of the swell, which passes it through French Polynesia before heading to Socal.  The second one has a bit more promise.

The system moving out from under New Zealand a couple days from now takes a more southerly track at first, then starts moving NE away from the ice as it passes under Chatham Is.  This could have a better shot of sending more promising surf for around the end of next week/weekend.  The models continue to show it improving its size and angle as the storm slowly moves east, so it could end up being a decent swell maker for around the 26th/27th.  Stay tuned.

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster