Potential tropical swell and more southern hemi on the way

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Austin Gendron
(Sunday) 8.5.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

The trend for the past week continues with mostly small, sometimes-moderate sized SSW (185-200) swell in the water.  There’s a little NW wind swell trickling in as well that could get a little bump through the start of the work week.  Biggest news is tropical swell due late Wednesday, kicking of a period better surf with more tropical swell and southern hemi on the way.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise, we’re still on the same episode we have been all week.  There’s a couple feet of mixed southern hemi in the water and some weak wind swell.  Basically not a whole lot of change through the first half of the week, with average spots seeing some ankle to waist high waves, and standouts seeing sets in the waist high to chest high+ range occasionally.

The mix of swell is supposed to perk up a little bit Tuesday and Wednesday, but I wouldn’t expect it to increase too much, but should be fun for exposed combo spots.

Wednesday night things get a bit more interesting.  We’re possibly looking at a pulse of S-SSE (160-170) arriving.  I say possibly because this storm still hasn’t even formed yet, and it doesn’t deserve hype as far as I am concerned.  Based on the current forecast (see below for details) we’re expecting standouts that can pick up the steep angle to see chest to overhead high+ waves… The swell would build Thursday and peak Friday before easing Friday night into Saturday… There will be some reinforcing SSW-SW (205-215) helping keep at least some knee to chest high waves if this thing doesn’t materialize, but from the looks of it we should see at least some fun waves through the end of the week.

Conditionwise we’re expecting high pressure bringing warm weather and even some offshores/sundowners in the mornings and evenings for a few areas.  Onshores in the afternoons will add the usual bump and chop for exposed spots.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Sunday the 5th SSW continues to see knee to chest high+ surf at standouts.

Monday the 6th SSW mix and a little extra wind swell later in the day

Tuesday the 7th a little boost to the mix of southern hemi and wind swell should mean a few more waist to chest high+ waves at standouts.

Wednesday the 8th swell mix holds through the morning, could ease a little late.  Watching for new tropical energy to start creeping in late.

Thursday the 9th tropical swell could start to build.  Wave heights potentially in the chest to overhead+ range, more likely in the waist to head high range, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Friday the 10th similar to Thursday, Friday is expecting some tropical energy that has yet to materialize.  With some southern hemi building we’re looking at waist to head high+ surf at least.

Saturday the 11th smaller surf as the SSW-SW mix eases.

Tropical Overview

The CEPac is looking pretty busy right now, so lets break it down a little bit to get a better idea of what to expect…

First off lets clean this up a bit.  Hector is a non swell maker for the most part.  Hawaii will get some from him, but otherwise.  Eleven-E (future name is Ileane) is the main swell maker, and it is going to consume number 2 pretty quick.  That additional energy should help the cyclone become a Tropical Storm as it pushes NW towards the tip of Baja.  The models are not in great agreement on strength, but are pretty locked in with putting the swell in striking range by Wednesday.  Depending on the strength at that point, we could be looking at a much more solid pulse of SSE-S (160-175) swell for the end of the week.  If Ileane can pull in more energy from #1, and swing more N at that point we could be in for a special one.  But its too early tell and there are just too many if’s at this point.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast is looking quieter for the time being

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range continues to hint at S (180-190) for the middle of the month.

Last weeks model showed a pretty hefty system in this area south of the Pitcairn Islands, but things have settled a little bit.  The storm still has a good N-NE track, that pushes the storm pretty far north (near 35S).  That’s going to add some size and consistency.

Better news looks like it could be a stronger system a couple more days out from that in the same area.  Building on the already disturbed sea state, this system could generate another overlapping and potentially more potent pulse for around the 16th.  Stay tuned

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster