S.hemi tropical swell and windswell all expected this week

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 9.19.16

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

SURF TRIP GIVEAWAY…..details in surf forecast! SSW-SW (200-210) lingers bringing some playful surf to the region through the start of the week.  We’re going to see a more prominent pulse of tropical energy arriving from the S-SSE (160-170) on Tuesday, lingering Wednesday.  The later half of the week we should see a more consistent pulse of SSW-SW and some windswell combo to help maintain fun surf for a couple days.  More s.hemi due next week.  Read more for details.

Get the live buoy forecast graph here – http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

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There’s a steady mix of small background swell from the S (~180)/SW (220-230) currently in the water bringing a combined 2 feet of deepwater swell.  There’s also a little NW (300+) adding combo energy.  Some standout combo breaks, or well exposed W-NW exposures are seeing knee to chest high waves.  Tuesday we’re going to start seeing S-SSE (160-170) energy working its way up the coast from Hurricane Paine.  The storm was recently upgraded, and has a pretty good northerly trajectory right now.  It’s not a super strong system, but will provide at least some small to moderate sized surf through midweek, with the peak coming late Tuesday into early Wednesday.  Wave heights are currently estimated to be around knee to chest high, but a few breaks could see better size in the waist to head high range.

The second half of the week and upcoming weekend are looking a little bitter as new SW (200-210) energy builds with long periods in the 18 to 20-second range on Thursday.

The swell is supposed to build to a peak on Friday and Saturday, with around 3 feet of deepwater swell.  That means wave heights will be running waist to head high along the exposed coast, with some bigger set waves around head high+ to overhead+ at magnets.  In addition a low passing through Northern and Central California is supposed to generate NW winds along the Central Coast and Southern California Bite late Thursday and Friday morning.  We should see a quick pulse of windswell from this event.  Conditions aren’t looking all that clean with breezy onshore winds and disturbed seas, but a few protected areas could at least see an increase in combo swell for the peaking SSW-SW in the water.  The southern hemi energy will linger into the weekend, and should still provide some better moderate size as conditions improve.  We’re expecting a potential offshore trend to take over Saturday and Sunday, which would help in cleaning up the lingering energy.

Tropical Overview

The current tropical models are looking good or Socal this week.  The incoming S-SSE (160-170) should arrive Tuesday with periods around 13-14 seconds.  The swell will build to a peak on Wednesday with around 4 to 5 feet of deepwater swell.  That should mean standouts are seeing wave heights in the waist to head high range.  The swell will back off more Thursday, blending with NW windswell and southern hemi starting to fill in.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The long-range forecast models are showing a quieter pattern in the North Pacific over the next week.  Any new updates will be added into Thursday’s forecast.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The South Pacific continues to produce this week, with a couple more systems brewing south of the Pitcairn Islands later this week.

These two systems are looking like they’re going to get a little more NE trajectory than the storm that produced the swell arriving Thursday.  That’s good for California as it will focus more of the energy in our direction.  They aren’t the strongest storms though.  The first one looks like it could produce 25-30+ foot seas, generating a small to moderate pulse of S-SSW (180-200) for around the 28th.

A second system takes a similar track late in the week, which could mean at least a continuation of surf through the start of October.  This one at the moment looks like it would arrive around the 1st/2nd.  The combination of the two pulses could mean a few better sized waves at standouts, but its still just too early to call.  The current solution is a downgrade from last week, and its a few days out still, so we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out.  I’ll have more updates on Thursday.  Stay tuned.

The next long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, September 22, 2016.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster

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