Sergio makes a miraculous return and brings solid surf again

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Austin Gendron
(Tuesday) 10.9.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

The big news this week is going to be round two of Sergio.  The storm has flipped around and is headed back NE towards Baja, which is great news for Socal.  Surf should hold through Wednesday and then pick up and peak Thursday and Friday as the swell swings more southerly.  Smaller to more moderate sized SW is due over the weekend.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

In reality the original pulse from Sergio is still in the water, and bringing fun waves in the waist to head high+ range to standout exposures.  Conditions are clean this morning, but likely to see increasing on shore winds in the afternoon, with the trend continuing over the next couple days as the new energy from Sergio fills in.

As expected from last weeks forecast the track for Sergio took an abrupt turn a couple days ago and started heading NE back towards Baja.  It has progressively worked its way closer and will continue to produce swell as it starts to relax in strength over the next couple days.

The peak of the swell is expected to come Thursday/Friday, with surf at standouts in the head high to well overhead range.  It’s possible for even larger sets at top exposures/magnets.  The most recent model runs are suggesting deepwater heights could be around 6-8 feet, with periods around 13 to 15 seconds.  You can imagine that many beaches will be under high surf advisory, and the currents are going to be strong with this one.  The past couple of swells have produced some pretty solid surf at some of the regions premier summer spots, and you can imagine this one wont disappoint.

The surf is expected to more rapidly drop off through the weekend as the lingering tropical energy gives way to a smaller but still fun sized SW (210-220) over the weekend.  Current forecast is for surf to back down into the waist to head high range again.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Tuesday the 9th this could be the turning point for the swell, it’s still too early to tell, but its possible that the tropical swell will have swung a bit more SSW-SW, and could start building again.

Wednesday the 10th keeping an eye on the rebound of Sergio, should be pushing wave heights into the chest high to well overhead

Thursday the 11th Sergio swell builds to a peak in the head high to well overhead+ range.  This swell is going to be pretty powerful.  Be safe and know your limits.

Friday the 12th Sergio swell holds its peak with head high to well overhead+ surf at standouts.

Saturday the 13th tropical swell begins to ease.  Surf should still be running chest to overhead in the morning at standouts

Sunday the 14th the surf is supposed to ease a little bit as the swell relaxes.  Wave heights expected to be in the waist to head high+ range at standouts that can pick up the new SW

Monday the 15th surf holds in the waist to head high range.

Tropical Overview

Following Sergio’s exit. there aren’t any other tropical systems showing on the long range forecast models

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The long-range forecast is looking pretty shaky and not very exciting.

There’s some unorganized activity northeast of Hawaii that could be worth keeping an eye on.  The most recent model run shows a weak trough dropping down far enough south that if it swings around it could send a little medium period energy towards Socal.  Aside from that, there’s a bigger system coming off the Aleutians near the dateline but its a bit too far north and a bit too weak to send much south of Pt. Conception.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Mostly smaller background swells showing up on the long range forecast at the time.

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster