small but playful surf through midweek, possibly bigger Thursday/Friday

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 1.22.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Small but playful leftover WNW-NW mix in the water today.  Conditions could shift a little onshore later today and Tuesday, but overall the trend should hold through midweek.  We’re expecting new medium-long period WNW-NW energy to arrive Wednesday/Thursday as a frontal system swings through the region.  Likely to kick up some wind swell Thursday as well.  Wave heights ease as conditions improve through the weekend..  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

A frontal system moving through Central California could increase onshores later today, but for the most part we’re expecting pretty decent conditions over the next couple of days as small surf settles into the knee to waist high+ range.

The next round of energy arrives is probably going to sneak under the radar Wednesday. It’s coming from a storm that generated 40-45 foot seas near Japan last Thursday. The system didn’t make it very far east before falling apart, so the degrading swell should only bring around a foot or two of energy during peak with 16 to 17 second periods Thursday. For the exposed coast that should mean knee to chest high surf at standouts.  There is a caveat though…

The next frontal system is due to start moving through the region late Wednesday into Thursday.  Precipitation is questionable at this point, but we’re expecting breezy westerly winds.  The swell mix associated with this swell is going to build Thursday on top of the long-period energy already in the water. Wave heights could build into the waist to head high range possibly bigger as the swell peaks at top exposures.

High pressure is supposed to return Friday as the swell starts to back off. Conditions will improve as wave heights ease into the knee to chest high range through the weekend.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 22nd new long-period NW energy arrives, but its looking steep, and wave heights are likely to continue to ease into the knee to chest high range at standouts.

Tuesday the 23rd mixed leftover WNW and new NW energy should help maintain knee to chest high wave heights.  Could perk up a little bit more at better westerly exposures.  Conditions look good.

Wednesday the 24th playful NW continues to bring knee to chest high surf to standouts.

Thursday the 25th Frontal system swings through the region.  Surf should increase into the waist to head high range at standouts.

Friday the 26th peaking mix of long period WNW-NW should mean waist to head high surf at standouts.  Conditions improve.

Saturday the 27th The swell mix eases, with standouts running knee to chest high.  Conditions looking good.

Sunday the 28th surf eases into the knee to waist high+ range as continue to look pretty good.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Models continue to look pretty sad for the long-range forecast. The storm track is mostly quiet. A weak trough in the Gulf of Alaska could generate some NW energy for the Central California coast early to mid-next week, but it’s not looking all that impressive at the moment.

Will follow up with details and any updates later in the week.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Minimal swell coming out of the South Pacific at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 25th.  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster